000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261525 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1525 UTC Fri Aug 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1500 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lester is centered near 17.1N 115.0W at 26/1500 UTC or about 435 nm to the south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Lester is moving west or 280 deg at 6 kt with maximum sustained winds of 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure remains 1000 mb. Satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection within 120 nm in the northern semicircle of the center, impacting Clarion Island. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 16N to 19N between 110W and 118W, impacting Socorro Island. Lester is forecast to continue moving away from the Mexican offshore waters on Friday, and strengthen to a hurricane near 17N120W late Friday. Please read the NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC or the public bulletin under MIATCPEP3/ WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located near 13.5N133W or about 1340 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted mainly west of the center from 11N to 16N between 135W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 13N between 134W and 136W. Another circulation was becoming evident overnight, and this may becoming the dominant circulation according to latest satellite imagery, and the low position may have to be relocated farther south accordingly. Winds are likely 25 to 30 kt with 6 to 9 ft seas. The system will intensify later today as it becomes more organized, with a high chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours as the low pressure moves westward or west-northwest at 15 to 20 kt, moving west of area by Saturday night. ...TROPICAL WAVES... No tropical waves at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N95W to 09N100W to 11N110W. It resumes at 14N126W to low pressure near 13.5N133W 1008 mb to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm north of the monsoon trough axis between 95W and 105W, and within 150 nm south of the axis between 100W and 110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An ASCAT pass from several hours ago indicated moderate southerly flow over the northern Gulf of California between 1004 mb low pressure centered over the lower Colorado River basin and high pressure farther west. These winds may be increasing slightly this morning as the surface ridge off Baja California builds. Limited fetch will keep the resultant seas generally 2 to 4 ft. Moderate northerly flow will persist off the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula with 5 to 6 ft seas. T.S. Lester is impacting Clarion Island and surrounding waters currently, but will move west of the area through late Friday. Little change is expected elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 of the Central American coast this morning, with strong convection noted off Guatemala. This convection will weaken through this afternoon, but will likely emerge again tonight. Light to moderate southwest winds south of the monsoon trough will continue to spread to the coastal sections through Friday, then a light and variable onshore flow is expected Saturday and Sunday. ELSEWHERE... A broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the area, extending from a large 1040 mb high near 47N146W. The pressure gradient between the low pressure located near 13.5N133W and the ridge will yield fresh winds across the trade wind belt, generally from 21N southward to near the trough. Seas ranging from 6 to 8 feet presently in this area. $$ CHRISTENSEN