000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260207 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 25 2016 corrected convection under Special Features Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lester is centered near 16.9N 113.4W at 2100 UTC or about 408 nm to the south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Lester is moving WNW or 295 deg at 9 kt with maximum sustained winds having increased slightly from this morning to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. During the course of the day Lester showed some organization to its overall cloud pattern. Satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection within 45 nm of the center in the southwest quadrant. Scattered strong convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of the center in the southwest semicircle, and within 60 nm of the center in the northeast semicircle. Lester is forecast to continue moving west-northwest and away from the Mexican offshore waters tonight as it gradually strengthens to a hurricane near 18N115W by early Friday afternoon. Please read the NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC or the public bulletin under MIATCPEP3/ WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. A broad tropical wave is moving along the monsoon trough in the vicinity of 129W-131W, moving westward near 15 knots. A 1008 mb low pressure center is suggested near 11.5N129W. Scattered to numerous strong convection has developed in recent hours within 360 nm across the NW semicircle, while scattered moderate to strong convection was elsewhere along the monsoon trough within 120 nm of the center. Fresh NE trade winds cover the area from 13N to 19N from 124W westward, where seas are running 6-9 ft. Environmental conditions are conducive for continued gradual improvement in organization of this system. It has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours before crossing 140W by 72 hrs. ...TROPICAL WAVES... No additional waves at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 10N90W to 09N96W to 10N108W. It resumes at 14N120W to low pressure at 11.5N132W 1008 mb to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong strong convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 93W and 98W, within 120 nm south of the axis between 130W and 138W, and within 120 nm south of the axis between 104W and 109W. Similar activity is south of the axis from 08N to 10N between 127W and 130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of the axis within 60 nm of line from 12N91W to 12N97W to 12N101W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A narrow surface ridge extends from the NE Pacific southeastward through 30N129W to north of Lester near 21N113W. This ridge will change little through the upcoming weekend, and combine with the persistent trough meandering along the Baja California peninsula and Gulf of California, to produce mainly light to moderate northerly flow prevailing outside of the Gulf of California. Expect mainly light to gentle southerly flow In the Gulf of California, except for occasionally fresh wind flow in the northern Gulf where the pressure gradient will be slightly tighter. High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has weakened. The strong gradeint associated with it earlier help usher 20-30 kt north to northeast winds through the Gulf. This winds have diminished to 20-25 kt this afternoon, and are forecast to diminish to 15-20 kt by late tonight, and lower to 10-15 kt on Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Global models suggest that a weak surface trough will develop just east of the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and help to draw the southwesterly winds occurring south of the monsoon trough northward into these coastal areas. A light and variable onshore flow is thus expected to prevail through the weekend. ELSEWHERE... A broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the area, extending from a large 1036 mb high near 49N145W. The low pressure center that is along 132W will move westward during the next few days. The pressure gradient between this lower pressure and the ridge will yield fresh winds across the trade wind belt, generally from 21N southward to near the trough, from just to the northeast of the low center to beyond 140W. Sea ranging from 6 to 8 feet presently in this area in mixed swell will increase slightly to 7 to 9 feet during this time. A large area of fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow is supporting seas of 6 to 8 feet from 07N northward between 115W and 125W. The strength and areal coverage of these fresh winds will increase to the south and southeast of the low center as it shifts westward during the next few days. $$ Aguirre