000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240953 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Aug 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 14N107W, moving west- northwest about 20 knots. The low pressure center is along a tropical wave that is along 106W/107W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong within 210 nm of the center in the north quadrant. Scattered strong from 21N to 23N between 104W and 107W. It is likely that the wind speeds currently may be 20 knots or less. The wind speeds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong during the next 24 hours. The sea heights already are reaching 8 feet in mixed southerly swell, and are forecast to build to 8 to 11 feet by 48 hours. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 99W/100W from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within a 30 nm radius of 13N100W. Scattered strong is inland in Mexico from 17N to 19N between 100W and 101W. This tropical wave is forecast to merge with the 106W/107W tropical wave and low pressure center during next few days. A tropical wave is along 126W/127W from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A description of the nearby convective precipitation is part of the monsoon trough/itcz section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough is along 06N77W to 10N85W to 08N94W, to a 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 14N107w. The monsoon trough continues from the 1007 mb low pressure center, to a second 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 11N121W. to 10N125W and 11N128W. The ITCZ is along 11N from 128W westward beyond 140W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 77W and 78W, within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 121W and 125W, and within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 128W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 113W and 116W, and elsewhere within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 113W and 115W, within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 120W and 125W, and within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 137W and 139W. Isolated moderate within 180 nm to the north and to the south of the monsoon trough between 87W and 100W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge is along 20N110W to 27N117W beyond 30N123W. This ridge will change little during the upcoming weekend, with mainly light to moderate northerly flow prevailing outside of the Gulf of California. Expect mainly light to moderate southerly flow In the Gulf of California, except for occasionally fresh wind flow in the northern Gulf where the pressure gradient will be slightly tighter. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: northerly winds will continue to pulse to fresh to near gale force during the next few days, due to a locally tight pressure gradient combined with nocturnal drainage flow, with the strongest winds expected during the late night into the early morning hours. Seas will build to up to 8 to 10 ft during the strongest winds. The gradient will weaken slightly this weekend allowing for northerly winds to pulse to only fresh levels. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Gulf of Papagayo: the latest model guidance indicates easterly offshore winds pulsing to fresh levels during the overnight and early morning hours of this morning, which will build seas to 7 ft. Expect light to moderate winds elsewhere. Combined seas will be 4 to 6 ft through the upcoming weekend. ELSEWHERE... The center of the post-tropical remnant low of Kay at 24/0600 UTC is a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 24N122W. No deep convective precipitation is present with the low pressure center. The remnant low will continue to move northwestward, and then more west-northwestward, before dissipating later today. A small area of fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft can be found within 150 nm in the northwest semicircle. These conditions will diminish and subside later today as the low pressure center dissipates. A 1007 mb low pressure center is embedded in the monsoon trough, near 11N121W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 121W and 125W, and within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 128W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 120W and 125W, and within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 137W and 139W. A large area of fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow is supporting seas of 8 to 9 ft within 420 nm in the southeast semicircle of the low center. Model guidance mainly keeps the low center weak if not even slightly weaker during the next couple of days, then the low may deepen late in the week into the upcoming weekend. $$ MT