000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231629 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Kay is near 22.7N 120.1W at 1500 UTC, moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The latest satellite imagery shows that Kay has become a low level cloud swirl devoid of deep convection. Deep layered easterly winds have stretched the circulation east to west in the low to middle levels. Kay will be moving over cooler waters in the next few days, and has entered a drier more stable middle to upper level environment, and is forecast to weaken to a post-tropical remnant this afternoon or evening, and then to dissipate by Thursday. Please see the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC, and the latest public advisory MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC, for more details. A tropical wave is along about 101W moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A broad low level wind surge spilling out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has aided in producing a large zone of convergence that has initiated scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection from 12.5N to 17N between 99W and 106W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 95W and 110W. Global models suggest suggest that environmental conditions are favorable for gradual development of this system as it continues moving westward. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high change through 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W S OF 14N...Scattered moderate to strong convection noted within 180 nm either side of monsoon trough between 117W and 124W. Low pressure near 10.5N116W 1008 mb is indicated by recent scatterometer data along the monsoon trough behind the wave axis. Scattered moderate to strong convection noted within 90 nm of low center except 45 nm across NW quadrant. The wave will continue moving westward with global models suggesting improved organization in a few days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Monsoon trough extends from low pres near 09N74.5W TO 07N82W TO09N100W TO 11.5N108W TO low pres near 10.5N116W TO 09.5N124W TO 12.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted within 180 NM of trough between 110W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Kay has moved west of the forecast area. The thermal trough continues to meander across the Baja California peninsula yielding light to moderate northwest winds across the Pacific waters of the peninsula, while light andvariable winds prevail inside the Gulf of California and extend to near Cabo Corrientes. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will subside gradually during the next few days. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: The tight gradient behind the tropical wave along 101W in combination with nocturnal drainage flow into the Gulf has produced a plume of north to northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots across the Gulf with seas 6-8 ft this morning. This plume of fresh winds also extends farther downwind and across the northern portions of the tropical wave, where seas are running 6-8 ft also. The fresh to strong east to southeast winds occurring between Puerto Angel and Acapulco this morning are expected to diminish this evening and tonight as the tropical wave shifts west of the area. However, look for fresh northeast winds across the Caribbean to continue to drive northerly winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next few days, and maximizing at 25 to possibly 30 kt each night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will pulse into the Gulf of Papagayo during the next few nights...peaking 20-25 kt during the late night and early morning hours and weakening to 15-20 kt during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Elsewhere, Light to moderate winds will prevail on either side of the monsoon trough with seas in the 4 to 6 foot range. ELSEWHERE... Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 31N128W. The resulting weak pressure gradient is maintaining generally light to gentle winds to the west of Kay, with sea heights in the range of 4 to 6 feet. South of 20N and west of Kay, the modestpressure gradient is producing moderate to fresh easttonortheast trades to the north of the monsoon trough. These winds will increase Wed through Thu as the tropical wavealong 120W moves into the area and tightens the pres gradient, and seas build 6-9 ft. $$ Stripling