000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221500
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1333 UTC Mon Aug 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

At 22/1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Kay was near 22.0N
117.1W, moving westward, or 280 degrees at 6 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure was 1002 mb, with maximum sustained wind
speeds of 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Scattered to numerous
strong convection was noted within 60 nm west semicircle of Kay. Kay
is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Tuesday, and is
forecast to dissipate on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC
for more details, and the latest public advisory MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32
KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W from 08N to 15N.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted north of
10N between 92W and 96W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W from 05N to 15N.
Convection is near the southern part of the tropical wave, and in
the monsoon trough.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is along 10N85W to 08N90W to 08N96W to low
pressure near 10N110W to 08N116W to 09N131W. The ITCZ is along
10N131W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 96W
and 105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
within 60 nm north and 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between
109W and 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Kay has shifted west of the forecast area. Light
to moderate winds prevail over much of the area in a relatively
weak pressure pattern, which will persist into early next week.
Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will subside gradually during the
next few days.

The Gulf of Tehuantepec: winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots
with seas building to 8 foot sea heights will start early on
Tuesday. These gap winds will continue through Friday. Winds may
peak near 30 kt early Tuesday with the onset of the gap winds.
Seas will build to 10 ft by Wednesday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will pulse into the Gulf of Papagayo during the next few
nights...peaking near 25 kt during the late night and early
morning hours and weakening to 20 kt during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. Elsewhere, Light to moderate winds will
prevail on either side of the monsoon trough with seas in the 4 to
6 foot range. 

ELSEWHERE...

High pressure of 1016 mb is centered near 29N127W. The resulting
weak pressure gradient is maintaining generally light to gentle
winds with sea heights in the range of 4 feet to 6 feet. These
general conditions will prevail today before freshening Tuesday.
Afterwards, moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the
remainder of the week. 

$$
AL