000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Kay at 22/0900 UTC is near 22.2N 116.6W, or about 375 nm to the west of the southern tip of Baja California. Kay is moving west-northwest, or 300 degrees, 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 45 nm of the center in the southwestern quadrant. Kay is forecast to remain as a minimal tropical storm early on Tuesday. Kay is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression starting on Tuesday afternoon. Kay will continue to weaken during the next few days as it encounters less conducive atmospheric conditions. It is forecast to dissipate early on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC for more details, and the latest public advisory MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave along 96W/98W from 15N southward, moving westward 15 knots. A surface trough also is across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong from 15N to 18N between 94W and 96W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Tropical wave along 113W/115W from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: precipitation is near the southern part of the tropical wave, and in the monsoon trough. The next tropical wave is forecast to reach the central sections of Honduras and Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica on Tuesday. Expect increasing showers and thunderstorms in those areas with the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough is along 10N85W to 08N94W to 11N104W to low pressure center near 10N109W 1009 mb to 06N129W. The ITCZ is along 10N132W to 07N140W. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong from 10N to the monsoon trough between 105W and 106W, from 12.5N to 13.5N between 105W and 108W, from 07N to 10N between 108W and 113W, and from 07N to 11N between 113W and 117W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 93W and 100W, and within 120 nm to 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate to strong within 60 nm of the coast from 03N to 08N. Numerous strong from 12N northward between 91W and 93W, and from 15N northward between 94W and 96W. Numerous strong from 24N to 25N between 107W and 108W including inland in Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 17N between 101W and 102W. Scattered to numerous strong from 20N to 22N between 106W and 107W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Kay continues to impact the waters that are to west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Light to moderate winds prevail outside of Kay in a relatively weak pressure pattern, which will persist into early next week. Combined seas of 4 to 7 feet outside of Kay will subside gradually during the next few days. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: north winds 20 to 25 knots and 8 foot sea heights will start early on Wednesday. The maximum wind speeds may reach 30 knots from the onset of this wind event and early in the afternoon on Wednesday. The 20 to 25 knot north winds and sea heights from 8 feet to 9 feet will continue from 14N northward between 94.5W and 95.5W early in the afternoon on Wednesday. Those same conditions will be prevailing early on Thursday morning. The strong northerly breeze and the 8 foot seas will disappear early in the afternoon on Thursday. Expect another possible brief pulse of northerly 20 to 25 knot winds early on Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh, and even reaching strong, through the Gulf of Papagayo and vicinity early on Tuesday. This event will dissipate by early Thursday. Light to moderate winds will prevail on either side of the monsoon trough. Combined seas of 4 to 7 feet will slowly subside through today as long period south-southwest swell decays. Seas are expected to be about 5 to 6 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo today, then build to 6 to 8 ft Tuesday. ELSEWHERE... A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 29N127W. The resulting weak pressure gradient is maintaining generally light to gentle winds with sea heights in the range of 4 feet to 6 feet. These general conditions will prevail into Tuesday. Cross-equatorial southerly swell and combined seas to 8 feet are present from 02S southward from 110W westward. An area of 8 foot sea heights and wind speeds 20 knots or less will develop first from 02N to 05N between 114W and 118W in about 12 hours or so. This area will grow with time during the next 48 hours, and it will maintain sea heights of at least 8 feet during that same time period. $$ mt