000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211502 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1259 UTC Sun Aug 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 21/1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Kay was near 21.2N 114.6W, moving northwestward, or 305 degrees at 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure was 1002 mb, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Numerous strong convection was noted within 45 NM of the center of Kay. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 19N to 22N between 112W and 117W. Kay is forecast to weaken gradually over the next couple of days...becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details, and the latest public advisory MIATCPEP2/ WTPZ32 KNHC, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W from 06N to 15N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 15N between 91W and 96W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 05N to 15N. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 11N between 110W and 114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough is along 09N84W to 09N96W to 11N105W to 07N114W to 07N118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 84W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 91W and 97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 101W and 107W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Kay continues to impact the waters southwest of the tip of Baja California. Light to moderate winds prevail outside of Kay in a relatively weak pressure pattern, which will persist into early next week. Combined seas of 4 to 7 feet outside of Kay will subside gradually early next week. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: northerly offshore winds will continue to pulse to fresh levels during the late night and early morning hours with nocturnal drainage flow. Northerly flow may increase further to fresh to strong Tuesday night through Thursday of next week as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico and tightens the pressure gradient between the Gulf of Mexico and the monsoon trough over the eastern north Pacific. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh through the Gulf of Papagayo and vicinity today and on Monday, with locally strong winds possible early Tuesday. Light to moderate winds will prevail on either side of the monsoon trough. Combined seas of 4 feet to 7 feet will slowly subside through Monday as long period south- southwest swell decays. Seas are expected to be about 5 to 6 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Monday. ELSEWHERE... High pressure of 1026 mb centered northwest of the area near 43N146W extends a weak ridge southeastward to near 26N120W. The resulting weak pressure gradient is maintaining generally light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. These general conditions will prevail into Monday. Cross equatorial southerly swell with combined seas near 8 ft is forecast to propagate into the far southern waters early this week. $$ AL