000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201503
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1323 UTC Sat Aug 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Kay was near 20.2N
112.6W, moving north northwestward, or 345 degrees at 5 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure was 1000 mb, with maximum
sustained wind speeds of 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Numerous
moderate to strong convection was noted within 120 nm southeast
semicircle and 30 nm northwest semicircle. Kay is forecast to
maintain its intensity until early Sunday morning before starting
to weaken. The system is forecast to weaken to minimal tropical
storm intensity with wind speeds of 35 knots on Monday, to a
tropical depression early on Tuesday morning, then become a post-
tropical remnant low early on Wednesday morning. Please read the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details, and the latest public
advisory MIATCPEP2/ WTPZ32 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W from 09N to 17N.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated to this
wave was noted from 08N to 12N between 105W and 110W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N96W to 08N103W to
10N110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
within 30 nm of the monsoon trough between 84W and 88W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 14N
between 98W and 104W.  

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Kay continues to impact the waters southwest of
the tip of Baja California, and it is described in detail in the
special features section. Light to moderate winds prevail outside
of Kay in a relatively weak pressure pattern, which will persist
into early next week. Combined seas of 4 to 7 feet outside of Kay
will subside gradually early next week.

The Gulf of Tehuantepec: northerly offshore winds will continue
to pulse to fresh levels during the late night and early morning
hours with nocturnal drainage flow, potentially increasing to
fresh to strong, on Wednesday and Thursday of the next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Offshore winds will pulse to fresh levels in the Gulf of
Papagayo and adjacent areas during the late night and early
morning hours on Tuesday and on Wednesday. Light to moderate
winds will prevail on either side of the monsoon trough. Combined
seas of 4 feet to 7 feet will subside gradually and slightly
through early next week as supporting long period south- southwest
swells decay.

ELSEWHERE...

High pressure of 1032 mb centered northwest of the area extends a
ridge southeast to near 23N118W. the distance of this high
pressure center is keeping a weak pressure gradient over the
area. winds are generally in the light to gentle range with seas
in the 4 to 6 ft range. These general conditions will prevail
through the remainder of the weekend.

$$
AL