000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191445 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1445 UTC Fri Aug 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kay centered near 19.1N 111.5W at 19/1500 UTC or 243 nm to the south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 300 nm in the southwest quadrant, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere within 120 nm of the center. Kay is forecast to maintain strength as a minimal tropical storm through early Sunday morning, then will weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and then to a remnant low by early Tuesday into Wednesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 100W/101W north of 09N to the coast of Mexico moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection has diminished during the past several hours, however, the tropical wave may help to enhance precipitation along the coast of southwest Mexico through the upcoming weekend as it passes by just to the southwest of the area. A tropical wave is along 140W from 10N to 19N moving west at around 10 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 20N west of 138W, with additional associated convection now located west of 140W. The pressure gradient between the tropical wave and ridging to the north-northeast of the area continues to support fresh trades which are maintaining combined seas in mixed swell to 8 ft from 17N to 19N west of 137W. These seas will subside to less than 8 ft later today as the tropical wave moves to the west of 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 10N90W to 08N100W, then resumes from 15N114W to 13N125W to 134W to 11N138W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough axis east of 84W, from 10N to 12.5N between 90W and 97W, within 90 nm west of a line from 19N104W to 15N105W to 12N106W, and also within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough axis between 118W and 132W. Additional scattered moderate convection is observed from 19N to 22.5N east of 109W. This convection developed near and over land, including Cabo Corrientes and adjacent areas, overnight before propagating offshore. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Kay continues to impact portions of the area, and is described in detail in the special features section above. Otherwise, ridging extends into the northern portion ahead of Kay with a northwest to southeast oriented trough along the western Gulf of California. Light to moderate winds prevail outside of Kay under a relatively weak pressure pattern, which will persist into early next week. Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft outside of Kay will gradually subside early next week as Kay decays. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly offshore winds will continue to pulse to fresh levels during the late night and early morning hours with nocturnal drainage flow, potentially increasing to fresh to strong by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Offshore winds will pulse to fresh levels in the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent areas during the overnight and early morning hours through the next several days. Otherwise, light to moderate winds will prevail on either side of the monsoon trough. Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft will gradually subside slightly through early next week as supporting long period south-southwest swells decays. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging reaches from 32N140W to the southeast to 23N117W, with mainly light to moderate trades prevailing. The ridging will break down as a weakening cold front drops down from the north. This decaying boundary will reach from 30N132W to 26N140W by early Saturday where it will stall through the remainder of the day Saturday, before retreating westward as a remnant trough into early next week. This pattern will allow for trades to remain relatively docile. $$ LEWITSKY