000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152109
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1906 UTC Mon Aug 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W north of 09N. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection associated to this wave was
noted from 10N to 13N between 95W and 100W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W from 09N TO 18N. Scattered
moderate convection associated to this wave was noted within 60
nm west of the tropical wave axis from 12N to 16N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 126W from 10N to 18N, with an
associated 1008 mb surface low center near 15N126W. Moderate to
convection was noted from 15N to 17N between 125W and 127W.
Tropical cyclogenesis is becoming less likely as environmental
conditions are becoming less conducive for further development of
this system.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 13N99W to 10N115W to
low pres near 15N126W to 12N133W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered
moderate convection was noted within 210 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 86W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 150 nm south and 90 nm north of the
monsoon trough between 95W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection
was noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 106W
and 117W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 180 nm
south of the monsoon trough west of 123W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

The NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward into the area to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and a surface trough over Baja California is supporting
gentle to moderate northwesterly winds over the coastal waters of
Baja California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas continue in
the 4-6 ft range across this area in mixed NW and SW swell. Light
and variable winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. Little
change in these overall marine conditions are expected during the
next few days, with winds increasing modestly each late afternoon
and evening along the Baja peninsula due to day time heating.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Gentle east to northeast winds generally prevail north of the
monsoon trough to the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, while gentle to
moderate south to southwest winds prevail south of the monsoon
trough. Seas are in the 4- 5 ft range southwest swell across this
area. The trough is expected lift northward to near 15N along
110W by Wednesday. Monsoonal southwest winds are expected to
increase to 15-20 kt west of 95W during this time, with seas
building to 7-8 ft. Light to moderate offshore winds will
generally prevail across the Papagayo region through Wednesday.
Southwest southern hemispheric swell will cross the equator and
move into the area waters on Tuesday and raise seas south of the
monsoon trough to 6-8 ft through Wednesday.

W of 120W:

High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 39N139W extends a ridge
southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and low pressure within the
monsoon trough is producing moderate to fresh trades roughly from
12N to 18N west of 136W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range.
Elsewhere, moderate northeast to east trade winds prevail west of
125W, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Gale force winds off the west
coast of the United States will generate a northerly swell. This
will increase sea heights in the 6-7 ft across the north waters by
late Tuesday into Wednesday.

$$
AL