000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151501 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1300 UTC Mon Aug 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W north of 09N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated to this wave was noted from 08N to 13N between 93W and 98W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W from 09N TO 18N. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated to this wave was noted within 60 nm west of the tropical wave axis from 13N to 17N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 125W from 10N to 18N, with an associated 1008 mb surface low center near 15N125W. Moderate to isolated strong convection was noted from 15N to 17N between 124W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 11N to 15N between 124W and 127W. Tropical cyclogenesis is becoming less likely as environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for further development of this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 12N94W to 12N105W to 10N111W to low pres near 15N125W to low pres near 10N132W to low pres near 11.5N139.5W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 06.5N to 13N between 86W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 210 nm south of the monsoon trough between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 180 nm south and 30 nm north of the monsoon trough between 110W and 118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 134W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: The NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward into the area to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate northwesterly winds over the coastal waters of Baja California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas continue in the 4-6 ft range across this area in mixed NW and SW swell. Light and variable winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. Little change in these overall marine conditions are expected during the next few days, with winds increasing modestly each late afternoon and evening along the Baja peninsula due to day time heating. S of 15N E of 120W: Gentle east to northeast winds generally prevail north of the monsoon trough to the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4- 5 ft range southwest swell across this area. The trough is expected lift northward to near 15N along 110W by Wednesday. Monsoonal southwest winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt west of 95W during this time, with seas building to 7-8 ft. Light to moderate offshore winds will generally prevail across the Papagayo region through Wednesday. Southwest southern hemispheric swell will cross the equator and move into the area waters on Tuesday and raise seas south of the monsoon trough to 6-8 ft through Wednesday. W of 120W: High pressure of 1026 mb centered near 38N140W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough near 11.5N139.5W is producing fresh to strong trades roughly from 13N to 16N west of 136W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft. This system is is expected to move west of 140W and into the Central Pacific basin later today. Elsewhere, moderate northeast to east trade winds prevail west of 125W, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Sea heights are expected to increase to 6-8 ft in NW swell across the north waters by late Tuesday into Wednesday. $$ AL