000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150959 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 93W-94W north 09N. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong convection is noted about the wave between 93W and 100W, and extends across Guatemala and Chiapas, Mexico. This wave will continue to move westward and across today through late Tuesday. A tropical wave is along 103W-104W from 08N TO 16N. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong convection is noted about the wave between 101W and 108W. An inverted low level trough extends from southern Mexico southward to near 16N103Wand is aiding in producing convergence and associated convection along coastal portions from Guerrero to Jalisco. This wave will continue to move slowly westward during the next few days, and interact with the persistent inverted low level trough. A tropical wave is along 124W-125w from 10N to 18N, with an associated 1008 mb surface low center near 15N124W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection has increased overnight to within 150 nm across the NW semicircle of the low center. The pressure gradient between the NE Pacific ridge and the low center is producing an elongated zone of fresh northeast trade winds between the low and the trough and about 20N. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for further development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves generally westward. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1008 mb near 09N91.5W to 08.5N81W to 12N98W to 10.5N108W to 13.5N116W...where it has fractured...then resumes from low pres 1008 mb near 15N124W to low pres 1008 mb near 11N131W to low pres 1008 mb near 12N139.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection noted from 05.5N to the coasts between 78W and 90W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong convection noted within 240 nm north and 180 nm south of trough between 93W and 115W. Scattered moderate to strong convection noted within 120 nm either side of trough west of 124W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: The NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward into the area to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough meandering over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate northwesterly winds over the coastal waters of Baja California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas continue in the 4-6 ft range across this area in mixed NW and SW swell. Light and variable winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. Little change in these overall marine conditions are expected during the next few days, with winds increasing modestly each late afternoon and evening along the Baja peninsula due to day time heating. S of 15N E of 120W: Active convection continues early this morning near the two tropical waves moving through the area and about the monsoon trough, as described above. Gentle east to northeast winds generally prevail north of the monsoon trough to the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 4- 5 ft in southwest swell across this area. The trough is expected meander southward through early Tuesday then lift northward to near 15N along 110W by Wednesday. Monsoonal southwest winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt west of 95W during this time, with seas building to 7-8 ft. Light to moderate offshore winds will generally prevail across the Papagayo region through Wednesday. Southwest southern hemispheric swell will cross the equator and move into the area waters on Tuesday and raise seas south of the monsoon trough to 6-8 ft through Wednesday. W of 120W: A 1026 mb high pressure center near 38N142W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough near 12N139.5W is producing fresh to strong trades roughly from 13N to 16N west of 136W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft. This system is moving westward at 10-15 mph, and is expected to move west of 140W and into the Central Pacific basin later today. Elsewhere, moderate northeast to east trade winds prevail west of 125W, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Marine guidance suggests increasing sea heights to 6-8 ft in NW swell across the north waters by late Tuesday into Wednesday. $$ Stripling