000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150229 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 94W north 09N. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave axis meets the monsoon trough, mainly from 09N to 10.5N between 94W and 96W. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the wave axis. The wave is generating some shower and tstm activity over parts of SE Mexico. This wave will move through the Tehuantepec region tonight into early Monday. The axis of a tropical wave is along 104W from 10N TO 18N. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave interacts with the monsoon trough, from 09N to 11N between 100W and 104W. This wave will continue to move slowly westward during the next few days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W from 10N to 18N. a 1007 mb low pressure has developed along the wave axis near 15.5N123W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is within about 75 nm NW quadrant of low center. Similar convection is also noted from 15N to 16N between 124W and 125W. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves generally west-northwestward. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 11N97W to 09N105W to 13N119W...then resumes at 12N125W to 1008 MB low pressure near 11N129W to 12N133W to 1008 MB low pres near 12N137W to 11N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are from 05N to 09N between 81W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 NM south of trough between 94W and 96W... from 10N to 13N between 121W and 124W...and from 09N to 11N between 128W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: The NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward into the area to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate northwesterly winds over the coastal waters of Baja California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas continue in the 4-5 ft range across this area in mixed NW and SW swell. Light and variable winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. Little change in these overall marine conditions are expected during the next few days, with winds increasing modestly each late afternoon and evening along the Baja peninsula due to local effects. S of 15N E of 120W: As previously mentioned, clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are observed on satellite imagery on either side of the monsoon trough, particularly from 05N to 09N between 81W and 87W. This convective activity is also affecting parts of Panama and Costa Rica. Winds and seas could be higher near the tstms. Seas are generally 4-5 ft in southwest swell across this area. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with locally fresh winds feeding into the convection E of 87W. The monsoon trough will meander along 10-11N during the next few days, then lift northward to near 15N offshore of Manzanillo by Tuesday. This will maintain light and variable winds across the Papagayo region through late Monday before moderate easterly winds return on Tuesday. W of 120W: High pressure of 1026 mb centered northwest of the area near 36N145W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough near 12N137W is producing fresh to locally strong trades roughly from 12N to 17N west of 135W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft based on an earlier altimeter pass. This system is moving westward at about 10 mph, and is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin on Monday. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next several days. Outside this area...gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Marine guidance suggests increasing sea heights to 6-8 ft in NW swell across the north waters by late Tuesday into Wednesday. $$ GR