000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 93W north 10N. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 12N to 15N between 91W and 95W. The wave is generating some shower activity over parts of Chiapas and Oaxaca. This wave will move through the Tehuantepec region tonight into early Monday. The axis of a tropical wave is along 102W from 10N TO 17N. A cluster of moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis from 13.5N to 16N between 103W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted near the wave axis, mainly south of 13N and where the wave meets the monsoon trough. This wave will continue to move slowly westward during the next few days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W from 10N to 18N. The interaction of this wave and the monsoon trough has helped develop a low pressure area near 15N122W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is within about 45 nm of the low center. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 10N to 12N between 121W and 123W. Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly less conducive for any additional development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves generally west-northwestward. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 12N93W to 11N105W to low pressure near 15N122W to 12N130W to low pressure near 12N136W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of 04N E of 82W...including the Gulf of Panama. Similar convection is from 06N to 08N between 82W and 86W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 11N between 95W and 100W...and within 120 nm south of trough between 126W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: The NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward into the area to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate northwesterly winds over the coastal waters of Baja California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas continue in the 4-5 ft range across this area in mixed NW and SW swell. Light and variable winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. Little change in these overall marine conditions are expected during the next few days, with winds increasing modestly each late afternoon and evening along the Baja peninsula due to local effects. S of 15N E of 120W: Convection has increased north of 04N E of 82W...including the Gulf of Panama. The convective activity is more concentrated south of the monsoon trough. Winds and seas could be higher near the tstms. Winds also increase to 10-15 kt behind the tropical wave located along 93W. Seas are generally 4-5 ft in southwest swell across this area. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with locally fresh winds feeding into the convection E of 82W and into the convection associated with the tropical waves along 93W and 102W. The monsoon trough will meander along 10-11N during the next few days, then lift northward to near 15N offshore of Manzanillo by Tuesday. This will maintain light and variable winds across the Papagayo region through late Monday before moderate easterly winds return on Tuesday. W of 120W: High pressure of 1026 mb centered northwest of the area near 36N145W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough near 12N136W is producing fresh to locally strong trades roughly from 12N to 17N west of 134W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft based on recent altimeter data. The low pressure center will continue to shift westward over the next 24 hours, and west of the area by 48 hours. This will shift the location of strongest winds and higher seas westward. Outside this area...gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas in the 4-6 ft range. $$ GR