000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141503 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1321 UTC Sun Aug 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W N of 09N. This wave will shift west over the next 2 days and through the Tehuantepec region. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W from 08N to 14N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated to this wave is noted from 09N to 16N between 99W and 103W. This wave will continue to move slowly westward during the next few days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W from 09N to 17N. The interaction of this wave and the monsoon trough has helped develop a low pressure area near 15N121W. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated to this low pressure area is noted over the NW quadrant within 120 NM of the low center. This area of disturbed weather is showing some signs of organization. However, environmental conditions are expected to remain only marginally conducive for any additional development while this system moves generally west- northwestward over the next couple of days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 12N96W to 10N104W to low pres near 15N121W to 11N127W to 13N133W to low pres near 12N136W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N east of 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm north and 120 nm south of the trough between 98W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 180 nm of the trough west of 120W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: The NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward into the area to near 20N112W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate northwesterly winds over the coastal waters of Baja California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Winds are slightly stronger at 15-20 kt within about 60 nm off the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. Seas continue in the 4-5 ft range across this area in mixed NW and SW swell. Light and variable winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. Little change in these overall marine conditions are expected during the next few days, with winds increasing modestly each late afternoon and evening along the Baja peninsula due to daytime heating. S of 15N E of 120W: Light to gentle winds are occurring from the Papagayo region to the Tehuantepec region and beyond to Acapulco this morning as broad low pressure prevails across most of Mexico. Seas are generally 4-5 ft in southwest swell across this area. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with locally fresh winds feeding into the convection associated to the tropical wave near 102W. The monsoon trough will meander along 10-11N during the next few days, then lift northward to near 15N offshore of Manzanillo by Tuesday. This will maintain to light and variable winds across the Papagayo region through late Monday before moderate easterly winds return on Tuesday. W of 120W: High pressure of 1028 mb centered northwest of the area near 38N143W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough near 12N136W is producing fresh to locally strong trades roughly from 12N to 17N between 130W and 140W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft based on recent altimeter data. The low pressure center will continue to shift westward over the next 24 hours...and west of the area by 48 hours. This will shift the location of strongest winds and higher seas westward. Outside this area...gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas in the 4-6 ft range. $$ AL