000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 89W N of 09N. Convergence behindthe wave is producing scattered convection across the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, while scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 90 nm of the Pacific coastlines from western Costa Rica to the Gulf of Fonseca. This wave will shift west over the next 2 days and through the Tehuantepec region with active convection continuing behind the wave. A tropical wave is along 101W-102W from 08N to 14N. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 08N to 16.5N between 97W AND 105W. This wave will continue to move slowly westward during the next few days. A third tropical wave covers the area 120W-122W between 10N and 17N with a 1008 MB low pressure center along the wave near 13.5N120W. Scattered strong convection is occurring within about 180 nm across the NW semicircle of the low center. A recent ASCAT pass showed NE winds in the 15-20 kt range between the low and 20N due across the NW quadrant of the low, and is a result of the pressure gradient between the low and the NE Pacific ridge to the north. This area of disturbed weather is showing some signs of organization. However, environmental conditions are expected to remain only marginally conducive for any additional development while this system moves generally west- northwestward over the next couple of days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1008 mb near 10N74W to 09N84W to 11N96W to 10N106W to low pres 1008 mb near 13.5N120W to 11N126W to 13.5N132W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm south of the trough between 77W and 120W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm north and 180 nm south of the trough between 120W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: The NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward into the area through 30N138W to near 19N109W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a persistent surface trough meandering over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate northwesterly winds across the coastal waters of Baja California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Winds are slightly stronger at 15-20 kt within about 60 nm off the mexican coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. Seas continue in the 4-5 ft range across this area in mixed NW and SW swell. Meanwhile, light and variable winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. Little change in these overall marine conditions are expected during the next few days, with winds increasing modestly each late afternoon and evening along the Baja peninsula due to daytime heating. S of 15N E of 120W: Light to gentle winds are occurring from the Papagayo region to the Tehuantepec region and beyond to Acapulco this morning as broad low pressure prevails across most of Mexico. Seas aregenerally 4-5 ft in SW swell across this area. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon trough. The monsoon trough will meander along 10-11N during the next few days, then lift northward to near 15N offshore of Manzanillo by Tuesday. This will maintain to light and variable winds across the Papagayo region through late Monday before moderate easterly winds return on Tuesday. W of 120W: A 1027 mb high pressure center is located near 38N143W this morning and extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this northeast Pacific ridge and low pressure along the monsoon trough is producing a zone of fresh to locally strong trades roughly from 13N to 18N between 130W and 140W, where seas are running 7-9 ft based on recent altimeter data. Easterly waves embedded in the trade winds across this area will continue to shift westward around 10- 15 kt over the next few days, and maintain the zone of fresh to strong trade winds between the trough and 18N. $$ Stripling