000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140229
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Aug 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 90W/91W N of 11N. The wave is
enhancing convection across the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala.
Convection is more concentrated over Guatemala and coastal waters
where a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted, particularly north of 13.5N.

A tropical wave axis is along 101W from 09N to 15N. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 09N to 14N between 97W AND
103W. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge
on the TPW product and 700 mb stream lines. It will continue to
move slowly westward during the next few days.

Another tropical wave extends from 17N118W to a 1007 MB low
pressure near 15N119W to 10N119W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within about 120 nm NW quadrant of low
center. An earlier ASCAT pass showed the circulation associated
with the low center and NE winds in the 15-20 kt range between the
low and 20N due to the pressure gradient between the low and the
NE Pacific ridge to the north. This area of disturbed weather
is showing some signs of organization. However, environmental
conditions are expected to remain only marginally conducive for
any additional development while this system moves generally west-
northwestward over the next couple of days.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N95W to 11N104W to a 
1007 MB low pressure near 15N119W to 13N130W to 1009 MB low
pressure near 12N135W to 12N140W. Most of the convective activity
is associated with the aforementioned tropical waves and lows.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N
to 12.5N between 129W and 131W. Scattered moderate is from 10.5n
to 15n between 132W and 138W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

The NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward into the area to near
17N108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface
trough over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate
northwesterly winds across the coastal waters of Baja California
to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Winds slightly increase to 15 kt
within about 60 nm off the mexican coast between Manzanillo and
Cabo Corrientes. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over this area.
Light and variable winds prevail inside the Gulf of California.
Little change in these overall marine conditions are expected
during the next few days, with winds increasing modestly along
the Baja peninsula due to afternoon heating.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Light to gentle winds are occurring from the Papagayo region
to the Gulf of Fonseca with seas of 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate
southwest to west winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough.
The monsoon trough will meander along 10-11N during the next few
days. This will lead to light and variable winds across the
Papagayo region through Monday. 

W of 120W:

High pressure of 1027 mb centered near 39N143W extends a ridge
southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure of 1009 mb
is embedded within the monsoon trough near 12N135W. The pressure
gradient between the northeast Pacific ridge and the low pressure
center is producing a zone of fresh to locally strong trades
roughly from 13N to 17N between 130W and 136W, where seas are
running 8-9 ft based on an altimeter pass. The low is forecast to
persist and shift westward around 10-15 kt over the next few days.
This will maintain the zone of fresh to strong trade winds north
of the low, with seas of 8-9 ft.

$$
GR