000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132125
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 90W north of 11N. This wave is affecting
the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala with scattered moderate
convection within about 60 nm on either side of the wave axis.
Similar convection is noted near the southern end of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave extends from 15N99W to a 1010 MB low pressure
embedded in the monsoon trough near 10N100W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 98W
and 102W. This wave will continue to move slowly westward during
the next few days.

Another tropical wave extends from 18N118W to 1010 MB low pres
near 13N118W to 10N118W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N
to 17N west of the wave axis to 121W. The 1712 UTC ASCAT pass
shows the circulation associated with the low center and NE winds
in the 15-20 kt range between the low and 20N due to the pressure
gradient between the low and the NE Pacific ridge to the north.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends 11N86W to 12N90W to 1010 MB low
pressure near 10N100W to another 1010 MB low pressure near 13N118W
to a third 1010 MB low pressure near 14N133W to 12N140W. Most of
the convective activity is associated with the aforementioned
tropical waves and lows. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
10N to 12.5N between 127W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

The NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward into the area to near
17N108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface
trough over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate
northwesterly winds across the coastal waters of Baja California
to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Winds slightly increase to 15 kt
within about 60 nm off the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo
Corrientes. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over this area. Light and
variable winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. Little
change in these overall marine conditions are expected during the
few days, with winds increasing modestly along the Baja peninsula
due to afternoon heating.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Gentle winds are occurring from the Papagayo region to the Gulf
of Fonseca with seas of 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate southwest to
west winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. The monsoon
trough will meander along 10-11N during the next few days. This
will lead to light and variable winds across the Papagayo region
through the weekend.

W of 120W:

High pressure of 1027 mb centered near 36N149W extends a ridge
southeast to near 17N108W. Low pressure of 1010 mb is embedded
within the monsoon trough near 14N133W. The pressure gradient
between the northeast Pacific ridge and the low pressure center
is producing a zone of fresh to strong trades roughly from 14N to
16N between 129W and 136W, where seas are running 7-8 ft. The low
is forecast to persist and shift westward around 10-15 kt over the
next few days. This will maintain the zone of fresh to strong
trade winds north of the low, with seas building to 8-9 ft on
Sunday.

$$
GR