000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131509
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1324 UTC Sat Aug 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 101W north of 09N. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection associated to this wave was noted
from 13N to 17N between 99W and 102W. This wave will continue to
move slowly westward during the next few days.

A tropical wave axis is near 118W between 10N and 18N. Scattered
moderate showers associated to this wave are noted from 10N to 17N
between 115W and 120W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N100W to 14N113W TO low
pres near 13N117W to low pres near 10N120W to 13N128W to low pres
near 13N134W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 240 nm either side of the trough between 112W and 121W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted within 240 nm south of the
trough between 122W and 128W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 90 nm north of the trough between 130W
and 133W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

The NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward into the area to near
17N108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface
trough over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate
northwesterly winds across the coastal waters of Baja California
to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over
this area. Light and variable winds prevail inside the Gulf of
California. Little change in these overall marine conditions are
expected during the weekend, with winds increasing modestly along
the Baja peninsula due to afternoon heating.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Gentle winds are occurring from the Papagayo region to the Gulf
of Fonseca with seas 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate southwest to west
winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. The monsoon
trough will meander along 10-11N during the next few days. This
will lead to light and variable winds across the Papagayo region
through the weekend.

W of 120W:

High pressure of 1027 mb centered near 39N143W extends a ridge
southeast to near 17N108W. Low pressure of 1010 mb is embedded
within the monsoon trough near 13N134W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is
generating moderate to fresh tradewinds between the trough and
25N, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. The ridge is forecast to
remain intact through the weekend and will continue to promote
moderate to fresh trades between the monsoon trough and 25N. The
low pressure center embedded within the monsoon trough will drift
westward over the next couple of days. Locally strong trades will
prevail north of this low center. Gentle to moderate south to
southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through
the weekend.

$$
AL