000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has formed across the eastern tropical Pacific
in the past few days and is presently along about 100W north of
10N. Active convection associated with this wave has shifted
westward across the Tehuantepec region and extending well south
to the monsoon trough during the past 36 hours, with scattered
moderate to strong convection currently from 14.5N to 18N
between 98W and 101.5W. Global models show this wave moving
slowly westward, at about 10 kt or less during the next few days.

A tropical wave extends along 116W-117W from 10N to 18N moving
west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 10N to 17.5N between 110W AND 119W. A weak 1008 mb
low pressure center continues along the monsoon trough
associated with this wave, near 13.5N128W. The pressure gradient
between the northeast Pacific ridge and the low pressure center
is producing a zone of fresh to strong trades roughly from 14.5N
to 17.5N between 126W and 132W, where seas are running 7-8 ft.
The wave is expected to continue to shift westward around 15 kt
over the next few days, while the weak low pressure center
persists, and will maintain the zone of strong trade winds north
of the low, and seas of 7-8 ft.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from low pres near 10N74W to 10N91W
to 09.5N100W to low pres near 13N117W to low pres near 10N120W
to low pres near 13.5N128W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection noted within 240 nm either side of
the trough west of 109W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

The NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward into the area to near
20N109W, and continues to promote light to moderate
northwesterly winds across the coastal waters of Baja California
to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, where seas are running 4-5 ft in
mixed swell. Gentle southerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of
California early this morning. Little change in these overall
marine conditions are expected during the weekend, with winds
increasing modestly along the Baja peninsula due to afternoon
heating.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Gentle winds are occurring from the Papagayo region to the Gulf
of Fonseca with seas 3-5 ft. Nocturnal thunderstorms occurring
across the gulf of Fonseca and coastal portions of El Salvador
are shifting slowly west and southwest ahead of an approaching
tropical wave over central America. Light to moderate southwest
to west winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. The
monsoon trough has begun to drift northward and will meander
along 10-11N during the next few days. This will lead to light
and variable winds across the Papagayo region through the
weekend. 

W of 120W:

The NE Pacific ridge extends from well offshore of northern
california southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within
the monsoon trough is generating moderate to fresh northeast
winds between the trough and 25N, where seas in the 5-7 ft range
prevail. The ridge is forecast to remain intact through the
weekend and will continue to maintain moderate to fresh trades
between the monsoon trough and 25N, with strong trades
prevailing north of the low center mentioned above. Light to
moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the
monsoon trough through the weekend.

$$
STRIPLING