000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130230
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Aug 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 18N114W to 10N115W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of
the wave axis, mainly from 12N to 17N between 112W and 117W. The wave 
remains embedded within an area of deep layered moisture as depicted
on the TPW animation and shows up very well on the 700 mb streamlines.
Model diagnostics guidance suggests that this wave will maintain
definition at the surface level while it tracks westward over the
next couple of days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N88W to 10N100W to 12N115W
to 10N120W to low pressure 1011 MB near 15N125W to low pressure 1010
MB near 12.5N131W to 1010 MB low pressure near 12N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N TO 12N between 100W
and 102W. Similar convection is near 07N88W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

Recent scatterometer data indicate that light to gentle winds
prevail across most of the area. Winds slightly increase to 10-15
kt near Los Cabos. Seas across the pacific waters of Baja
California are generally ranged 4-5 ft. Little change in the
overall marine conditions are expected during the upcoming
weekend, with winds increasing modestly due to afternoon heating.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Gentle to moderate easterly winds extend from the Papagayo region
to the Gulf of Fonseca with seas across this area generally under
6 ft. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
over the northern Gulf of Tehuantepec. Similar shower and tstm
activity is seen over the northern Gulf of Fonseca with scattered
moderate convection inland near the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to
moderate southwest to west winds are occurring south of the
monsoon trough. The monsoon trough is forecast to drift northward
during the next few days and produce light onshore flow across the
Papagayo region by Saturday evening.

W of 120W:

High pressure located NW of area extends a ridge across the north
waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is
generating moderate to fresh northeast winds between the trough
and 25N, where seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail. A 1011 mb low
pressure center near 15N125W is embedded along the monsoon trough
and shifting westward. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong
convection is within about 120 NM NW quadrant of low center. Winds
of 20-25 kt and seas near 8 ft are expected to persist between the
low and 16N/17N during the next few days. The ridge is forecast to
remain intact through the weekend and will continue to maintain
moderate to fresh trades between the monsoon trough and 25N. Light
to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the
monsoon trough through the weekend.

$$
GR