000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122120
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Aug 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 113W. There is limited convection
associated to this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N86W to 10N100W to 12N114W
to low pressure 1012 MB near 15N125W to low pressure 1010 MB near
12.5N130W to 1011 MB low pressure near 12N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N
between 97W and 100W...and from 10N To 13N between 121W and 123W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 10N between 100W and
108W...and from 08N to 10N between 118W and 122W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

A loose pressure gradient prevails across the area. Recent
scatterometer data indicates light to gentle winds prevail across
the area. Little change in the overall wind pattern is expected
for the next 48 hours, with winds increasing modestly due to
afternoon heating.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Moderate to fresh easterly winds extend from the Papagayo region
to the Gulf of Fonseca with seas across this area in the 4-7 ft
range. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated
with a surge of low to middle level moisture is occurring from 10n
to 13n between 97W and 100W. Light to moderate southwest to west
winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. The monsoon
trough is forecast to drift northward during the next few days and
produce light onshore flow across the Papagayo region.

W of 120W:

High pressure located NW of area extends a ridge across the north
waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is
generating moderate to fresh northeast winds between the trough
and 25N, where seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail. A 1012 mb low
pressure center near 12N125W is embedded along the monsoon trough
and shifting westward. Winds around 20 kt and seas in the 6-7 ft
range are expected to persist between the low and 17N during the
next few days. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 kt with
seas building to around 8 ft by Sat night. The ridge is forecast
to remain intact through the weekend and will continue to maintain
moderate to fresh trades between the monsoon trough and 25N. Light
to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the
monsoon trough through the weekend.

$$
GR