000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121507
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1154 UTC Fri Aug 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 113W. There is limited convection
associated to this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N98W to 12N110W to
10N115W to low pres 1011 mb near 15N124W to low pres 1010 mb near
12N138W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between
98W and 107W. Similar convection is noted within 210 nm S and 150
nm N of the monsoon trough between 115W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

A loose pressure gradient prevails across the area. Recent
scatterometer data indicates light to gentle winds prevail across
the area. Little change in the overall wind pattern is expected
for the next 48 hours, with winds increasing modestly due to
afternoon heating.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Moderate to fresh easterly winds extend from the Papagayo region
to the Gulf of Fonseca with seas across this area in the 4-7 ft
range. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with a
surge of low to middle level moisture is occurring north of 11N
between 93W and 97W. Light to moderate southwest to west winds
are occurring south of the monsoon trough. The monsoon trough is
forecast to drift northward during the next few days and produce
light onshore flow across the Papagayo region.

W of 120W:

High pressure located NW of area extends a ridge across the north
waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is
generating moderate to fresh northeast winds between the trough
and 25N, where seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail. A 1013 mb low
pressure center near 15N124W is embedded along the monsoon trough
and shifting westward. Winds around 20 kt and seas in the 6-7 ft
range are expected to persist between the low and 18N during the
next few days. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 kt with seas
building to around 8 ft by Sat night. The ridge is forecast to
remain intact through the weekend and will continue to maintain
moderate to fresh trades between the monsoon trough and 25N. Light
to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the
monsoon trough through the weekend.

$$
AL