000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120938 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 112W moving westward near 15 kt. This wave is gradually approaching a low pres center embedded along the monsoon trough near 10N115W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is occurring about the periphery of the waves circulation between 104W and 118W. Computer model guidance indicates that the wave and low will gradually merge into a broad circulation during the next few days as this feature continues moving westward. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1010 mb near 10N74W to 12.5N105W to low pres 1012 mb near 10N115W to low pres 1013 mb near 14.5N123W to low pres 1010 mb near 11N138W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of trough between 92W and 101W...and N of 12N between 90W and 96W. Similar convection is within 210 nm N and 150 nm S of trough between 113W AND 121W...and between 126W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: Skies continue mostly clear over the southern Baja California peninsula after much cloudiness in recent days. Satellite imagery shows middle and upper level debris clouds moving southwestward away from the Mexican coast from Sinaloa to near Acapulco, while small clusters of late evening thunderstorms continue to shifted off the coast and weaken between Manzanillo and Mazatlan. Recent scatterometer data shows light to moderate winds circulating cyclonic about the Baja California Peninsula, generally in the 10-15 kt range. Little change in the overall wind pattern is expected for the next 48 hours, with winds increasing modestly due to afternoon heating. S of 15N E of 120W: Recent scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh easterly winds extending from the Papagayo region to the Gulf of Fonseca and extending west southwestward to near 94W. Seas across this area are running 4-7 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with a surge of low to middle level moisture is occurring north of 12N between 90W and 96W. Light to moderate southwest to west winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. The trough is forecast to drift northward during the next few days and produce light onshore flow across the Papagayo region. W of 120W: High pressure located NW of area extends a ridge across the north waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure near the monsoon trough is generating moderate to fresh northeast winds between the trough and 25N, where seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail. A 1013 mb low pressure center near 14.5N123W is embedded along the monsoon trough and shifting westward. Winds around 20 kt and seas 6-7 ft are expected to persist between the low and 18N during the next few days, with winds expected to increase to 20-25 kt and seas to around 8 ft by Sat night. Elsewhere, the ridge is forecast to remain intact through the weekend and will maintain moderate to fresh trades between the monsoon trough and 25N. Light to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. $$ STRIPLING