000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112125
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Aug 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave extends along 100W from 09N to 15N. Moisture
has diminished in association with the wave. As a result, only
isolated showers are noted near the wave axis. A scatterometer
pass indicated the wind shift associated with the wave axis.

Another tropical wave is analyzed from 10N107W to 17N107W. Latest
satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong
convection from 12N to 17N between 106W and 111W. Model
diagnostics guidance suggests that this wave will maintain
definition at the surface level while it tracks westward over the
next couple of days. The edge of a recent scatterometer pass
captured the wind shift related to the wave axis.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

Monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N90W to 11N107W to
10N113W to 13N118W to low pressure near 13N125W 1012 MB to a
second low pressure near 10N137W 1012 MB and to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N
to 11N between 86W and 93W. Similar convection can be found from
09N to 13N between 101W and 104W...and within 120 nm south of
trough between 107W and 113W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

Cloudiness has diminished over the southern Baja California
peninsula compared with the previous days. Visible imagery shows
an area of low and middle level clouds hugging the pacific coast
from 23N to 26N, and within about 150 nm west of that coast. A
recent ASCAT pass provided observations of gentle to moderate
southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California, mainly N
of 29N while NW winds in the 10-15 kt range are noted along the
pacific coast of Baja California. These winds are on the east side
of a ridge that extends across the north waters.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Fresh to strong northeast to east Gulf of Papagayo winds are
forecast to diminish to 15 to 20 kt by early this evening with
seas subsiding to 5 to 6 ft. 

A couple of tropical waves are moving across the area. Please
refer to the Tropical Waves section for details. Satellite imagery
depicts that the Monsoon Trough is pretty active across E of 115W.

W of 120W:

High pressure located NW of area extends a ridge across the north
waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The difference in
pressure between the ridge and lower pressure near the monsoon
trough is generating moderate to fresh northeast winds to the
north of 15N and west of 120W with seas in the 5-7 ft range. 

As previously mentioned, there are two areas of low pressure along
the Monsoon Trough, one near 13N125W and the other near 10N137W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N
between 123W and 130W in association with the easternmost low.
Marine guidance suggests a little increase in winds and seas on
the northern semicircle of this low by Friday evening as it moves
westward over the next couple of days.

$$
GR