000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Aug 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave extends from just west of Puerto Angel 
south to 17N97W. Water vapor imagery shows that dry aloft has
mixed in with earlier moisture that was present in the vicinity of
the wave. As a result, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are
noted within 120 nm of the wave.

Another tropical wave is analyzed from 16N106W to 09N107W. Latest
satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is occurring from 09N to 15N between 100W and 107W, and
within 30 nm of a line from 13N110W to 14N107W. Model diagnostics
guidance suggests that this wave will maintain definition at the 
surface level while it tracks westward over the next couple of
days. Global model guidance indicates that weak lows are 
are likely to form along the monsoon trough near or on the wave 
axis. This should promote an increase of convective activity
at those locations.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

Monsoon trough axis extends from 10N79W to 09N95W to 11N105W to 
10N113W to 13N118W to low pressure centered near 13N124W 1011 MB
low pressure near 10N137W 1010 mb to beyond 10N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm
south of the axis between 134W and 137W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 107W and 
also within 30 nm of 09N115W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

First visible imagery shows an area of low and middle level clouds 
hugging the southern coast of Baja California from 23N to 26N, 
and within 180 nm west of that coast. Isolated showers are
possible with these clouds. Weak isolated showers and
thunderstorms are over the interior of northwest Mexico from 
26N to 31N between 105W and 110W. This activity lies underneath
a pool of deep atmospheric moisture located to the southeast of 
a broad upper level trough that stretches from the western U.S.
southwest to northern Baja California. This activity may possibly 
increase over the next 24 to 48 hours as the aforementioned trough
sharpens.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Strong northeast to east Gulf of Papagayo winds are forecast to
diminish to 15 to 20 kt by early this evening with seas subsiding
to 5 to 6 ft. See tropical waves section for details on these 
features.

W of 120W:

High pressure dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of
120W with axis extending from 32N138W to 22N115W. The difference
in pressure between the ridge and lower pressure near the monsoon
trough is generating moderate to fresh northeast winds to the N
of 15N and W of 120W with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Some portions
of this area may see an increase in the winds if another low form
near 14N130W late Friday as depicted in the global model consensus.
The low is forecast to track generally westward through Saturday.

$$
AGUIRRE