000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110921
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
603 UTC Thu Aug 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave extends S from the Gulf of Tehuantepec near
16N95W to 10N96W. The wave has little associated convection over
water but appears to be enhancing convection over the Mexican
state of Oaxaca. The wave is embedded in a modest area of moisture
depicted in composite satellite imagery.

A stronger tropical wave is analyzed S of Cabo Corrientes Mexico
from 17N104W to 11N106W. Scattered moderate and scattered strong
convection is present from 11N to 14N between 101W and 104W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found
elsewhere from 09N to 14N between 101W and 106W. Composite
satellite imagery indicates a pronounced area of moisture
associated with this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

Monsoon trough axis extends from 10N78W to 11N101W to 09N97W to
1013 MB low pressure centered near 09N111W to 1010 MB low pressure
near 14N120W to 1010 MB low pressure near 10N136W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen
within 180 nm of the monsoon trough axis E of 101W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 09N to 13N between 122W and
128W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

The latest infrared satellite imagery only shows some residual
cloudiness associated with former T.S. Javier over southern Baja
California. Tropical moisture in this area is diminishing. Fresh
to locally strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of
California N of 29N have decreased to 15-20 kt. The area of low
pres over the SW United States has filled, which has allowed the
winds to lessen. Fresh to strong winds are not anticipated over
the Gulf of California for at least the next several days.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Gap winds will spike to between 20 and 25 kt, and seas will build
to 8 ft one more time in the Gulf of Papagayo this morning. The
winds will diminish to between 15 and 20 kt late this afternoon as
seas subside to between 5 and 6 ft.

An area of low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near
09N111W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted in
satellite imagery in the W semicircle within 120 nm of the center.

A pair of tropical waves are crossing the area. Please refer to
the Tropical Waves section for details.

W of 120W:

A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. The
difference in pres between the ridge and lower pressures near the
monsoon trough is generating moderate to fresh NE winds to the N
of 15N and W of 125W based on the most recent satellite-derived
wind data. Satellite-derived sea height data indicate that seas in
this area are staying in the 5-7 ft range.

Two areas of low pressure reside along the monsoon trough in this
area. The first one lies near 14N120W and the second one near
10N136W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted near the first low in the W semicircle within 120 nm.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted near
the second low from 07N to 13N between 132W and 139W. The
easternmost low is forecast to merge with a larger area of
disturbed weather farther W in a couple of days. Slow development
of the new system is possible this weekend or early next week as
it moves generally westward. The Tropical Weather Outlook issued
at 11 pm PDT still calls for low chances of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 5 days.

Of note, after a very active period of tropical cyclone formation
in the Eastern Pacific region with 5 tropical storms and 5
hurricanes from July 2nd to August 9th, weather conditions for
today remain quieter.

$$
cam