000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110231 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave extends south of Guatemala near 15N92W to 08N93W moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 09N-12N west of the wave axis to 96W. Stronger convection is noted where the wave meets the Monsoon Trough. The wave is embedded in an area of abundant moisture as noted in SSMI TPW imagery and a weak inverted trough is observed in 700 mb streamlines. A tropical wave is analyzed from 17N103W to 09N104W. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. Model guidance indicates that this wave will maintain a rather well-defined northeast to southeast wind shift across its axis as it continues westward over the next 24 to 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Monsoon trough axis extends from 08N79W to 10N93W to 09N97W to 10N103W to 09N109W to 1009 MB low pressure centered near 14N119.5W to another 1010 MB low pressure near 11N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm south of the axis east of 83W. Similar convection is seen within 150-200 nm south of axis between 85W and 100W, and from 07N-13N between 120W- 137W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: Latest visible satellite imagery is still showing some of the cloudiness associated with former T.S. Javier over southern Baja California. Tropical moisture will persist across the area for at least the next 24 hours. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds continue to affect the northern part of the Gulf of California mainly north of 30N. These winds are forecast to diminish to 15-20 kt tonight. S of 15N E of 120W: Expect pulsing winds, in the 20-25 kt range, and seas building as high as 8 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo again late tonight before diminishing to 15-20 kt late Thursday afternoon and seas lowering to 5-6 ft. Currently, marine guidance suggest an area of 20-25 kt winds and seas to 8 ft from 10N to 12N between 87W and 90W by early Thursday afternoon. A couple of tropical waves are moving across the area. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details. Satellite imagery depicts that the Monsoon Trough is very active east of 100W. W of 120W: A ridge dominates the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the Monsoon Trough is generating moderate to fresh northeasterly winds to the north of 15N and west of 125W based on recent scatterometer passes. A couple of altimeter passes indicate that sea heights within this area continue to be in the 5-7 ft range. A short-lived long-period north swell is producing seas up to 8 ft north of 29N between 123W and 128W. This swell event is forecast to decay by late tonight with seas subsiding to less than 8 ft. As previously mentioned, there are two areas of low pressure along the Monsoon Trough, one near 14N119.5W and the other near 11N132W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted on satellite imagery within 120 nm west semicircle of low center. This low is forecast to merge with a larger area of disturbed weather farther west in a couple of days, and some slow development of that system is possible this weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward. The Tropical Weather Outlook from 5 pm PDT continues to indicate a low chance of formation during the next 5 days. Of note, after a very active period of tropical cyclone formation in the Eastern Pacific region with 5 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes from July 2nd to August 9th, today's weather conditions are quieter. $$ GR/ERA