000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Aug 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a weak tropical wave axis extends from 07N90W to
16N89W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 07n to 09N within 120 nm east of wave. Similar
convection is 60 nm west of the wave from 11N to 14N.

A better defined tropical wave axis is analyzed from 08N101W to
15N101W. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered strong
convection within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 11N to 14N.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N
to 11N between 101W and 104W. Model guidance indicates that this
wave will maintain a rather well-defined northeast to southeast
wind shift across its axis as it continues westward over the next
24 to 48 hours, with moisture convergence suggesting that
associated convection should remain somewhat active.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

Monsoon trough axis extends from extends from 08N79w to 09N101W 
to 12n110W to 13N114W to low pressure near 13N118W 1009 mb to 
12N122W to low pressure near 12N131W 1010 mb to 09N135W. ITCZ
extends from 09N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm 
south of the axis between 119W and 123W, and also within 60 nm of
the axis between 126W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm south of the axis between 84W and 89W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N of 15N E of 120W:

A trough...consisting of the remnants of former tropical system
Javier...extends from along the far northwest portion of Mexico
south-southwest to across the southern part of Baja California
Sur and to near 21N113W. Isolated showers are possible within 
90 nm of the trough. The pressure gradient between the trough 
and relatively higher pressure near it is allowing for the 
existence of strong southeast to south winds over the far
northern portion of the Gulf of California. These winds are 
forecast to diminish to 15-20 by early this evening.

Moisture partially related to Javier has spread into Arizona and
New Mexico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of
up to 8 inches, are possible through Thursday. The trough is
expected to gradually weaken through Friday.

A short-lived long-period N swell producing seas of 8 ft is 
present west of of Baja California Norte north of 29N between
124W and 130W. This swell is forecast to decay by late tonight
with seas subsiding to less than 8 ft.

S of 15N E of 120W:

Expect pulsing winds, in the 20-25 kt range, and seas building as
high as 8 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo again late tonight before
diminishing to 15-20 kt Thursday afternoon and seas lowering 
to 5-6 ft.

W of 120W:

A ridge extends southeastward from 21N137W to 23N123W. The
difference in pressure between the ridge and the monsoon trough is
generating moderate to fresh NE winds to the N of 15N and W of
125W. Satellite-derived sea heights continues to indicate seas of
5-7 ft within this area.

An area of low pressure is expected to  form about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by Sun in the vicinity of
13N131W. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally
conducive for some gradual development of this system while it
moves slowly WNW.

$$
AGUIRRE