000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 701 UTC Wed Aug 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave is located near 89W from about 11N to 17N. The axis of the wave extends over El Salvador and Guatemala. Only isolated strong convection from 07N to 14N between 97W and 92W is associated with this wave. A stronger tropical wave is located near 99W from about 08N to 15N. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection associated with this wave is found from 10N to 14N between 97W and 100W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 07N to 14N between 94W and 101W. The wave appears to be enhancing convection over the states of Oaxaca and Veracruz in southern Mexico. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N78W to 11N90W to 1008 MB low pressure near 08N100W to 14N115W to another 1008 MB low pressure near 13N118W to 10N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present along and up to 180 nm S of the monsoon trough axis between 117W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: Tropical Depression Javier weakened to a remnant low at 09/2100 UTC. Satellite-derived winds and surface observations indicate winds in the vicinity of Javier have decreased to 15 kt or less. The same satellite-derived wind imagery indicates winds between 20-25 kt over the northern Gulf of California N of 25N. The remnant low of Javier is still expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and NW Mexico through Thursday morning, with maximum amounts of up to 8 inches possible. Moisture partially related to Javier has spread into Arizona and New Mexico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches, are possible through Thursday. The remnant low of Javier is currently located N of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico near 26N113W. The weakening low will continue to move NNW along the southern Baja California peninsula for the next day or so until it dissipates. Satellite-derived wind imagery from around 0400 UTC indicated fresh to strong winds were present over the Gulf of California N of 29N. The winds should continue until this evening before fading. Peak wave heights should remain below 8 ft. A short-lived long-period N swell of about 8 ft will just reach the northern waters to the W of Baja California Norte today. S of 15N E of 120W: Expect pulsing winds, in the 20-25 kt range, and seas building as high as 8 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo this morning and tomorrow morning with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. No significant long-period swells are expected to affect the area from the southern hemisphere during the next several days. Wave model guidance suggests the next long period swell event will begin next week on Mon or Tue. W of 120W: A ridge extends southeastward from 21N137W to 23N123W. The difference in pressure between the ridge and the monsoon trough is generating moderate to fresh NE winds to the N of 15N and W of 125W. Satellite-derived sea heights indicate seas of 5-7 ft in this area. An area of low pressure could form about 1500 miles east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by Sun in the vicinity of 13N131W. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves slowly WNW. Chances of development for this system during the next 5 days are low. $$ cam