000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100229
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Aug 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave, with axis across Central America, is located
near 88W from about 10N to 18N. No significant convection is
associated with the wave.

A weak tropical wave is located near 98W extending from about 08N
to 17N. An area of showers with embedded tstms remains E of the
wave axis covering the waters from 10N-13N between 93W-97W. The
wave appears to enhance convection over parts of Oaxaca and
Guerrero.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N88W to a 1009 MB low
pressure near 08N100W to another 1009 MB low pressure near
13N118W to 11N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 11N to 14N between 117W and 120W. Similar convection is near 
11N131W.

...DISCUSSION... 

Tropical Depression Javier weakened to a remnant low at 09/2100
UTC. The most recent scatterometer pass indicates winds in the
20-25 kt in the southern Gulf of California and within about 150
nm NE of the remnant low of Javier. Stronger winds, in the 25-30
kt range are over the northern Gulf of California, particularly N
of 29N. The remnant low of Javier is expected to produce storm
total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and
northwest Mexico through Thursday morning, with maximum amounts of
up to 8 inches possible. Moisture partially related to Javier has
spread into Arizona and New Mexico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain,
with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches, are possible through
Thursday. The expected rainfall could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides. The remnant low of Javier currently
located near Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico will continue to move near
or over the southern Baja California peninsula for the next day or
so.

A ridge from the NW dominates the NW waters, mainly N of 15N W of
120W. This system is producing moderate to locally fresh N to NE
winds with seas of 5-7 ft. 

Winds in the northern Gulf of California should persist for about
a day before fading and peak wave heights should remain below 8
ft. An altimeter pass indicated seas near 8 ft over the southern
Gulf near 25.5N110W.

Expect pulsing winds, in the 20-25 kt range, and building seas to
8 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early
morning hours over the next couple of days with the assistance of
the nocturnal drainage flow.

A short-lived long-period northern swell of about 8 ft will just
reach our north waters tonight and tomorrow. Marine guidance
suggests seas to 8 ft spreading S and covering the waters N of
28N between 123W and 128W by late Wednesday.

No significant long-period swells are affecting the area from
the southern hemisphere now through the next several days.

A weak area of low pressure could form about 1500 miles east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
The Tropical Weather Outlook from 5 pm PDT indicates a low chance
of formation during the next 5 days.

$$
GR