000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2115 UTC Tue Aug 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave, with axis across Central America, is located near 87W from about 08N to 17N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough. A weak tropical wave is located near 97W extending from about 08N to 19N. No significant convection is associated with the wave except along the monsoon trough south of 10N. A small area of showers and tstms has recently developed E of the wave axis from 10N-12N between 93W-95W ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N90W to a weak 1010 MB low pressure near 08N100W to another weak 1011 mb low pressure near 13N117W to 10N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N E of 81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 NM S of trough between 84W and 87W. Similar convection can be found from 07N to 10N between 95W and 101W...from 07N to 10N between 103W and 106W...and from 10N to 12N between 126W and 131W. ...DISCUSSION... Tropical Depression Javier has weakened to a remnant low and the last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system at 09/2100 UTC. At this time...it is centered near 24.6N 112.0W, moving NW or 310 degrees at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak wave heights are around 8-10 ft, but no observations near Javier have been available recently. There is only scattered moderate convection within 60 nm in the NE semicircle of Javier. A recent scatterometer pass indicates winds in the 20-25 kt in the southern Gulf of California and within about 150 nm NE of the remnant low of Javier. Stronger winds, in the 25-30 kt range are over the northern Gulf of California, particularly N of 29N. The remnant low of Javier is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and northwest Mexico through Thursday morning, with maximum amounts of up to 8 inches possible. Moisture partially related to Javier has spread into Arizona and New Mexico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches, are possible through Thursday. The expected rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. The remnant low of Javier will continue to move near or over the southern Baja California peninsula for the next day or so. Please refer to the latest NHC forecast and public advisories under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC and MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for more details. Easterly tradewinds are weak across the area remaining at fresh breeze or weaker conditions with corresponding wave heights remaining below 8 ft. Winds in the northern Gulf of California should persist for about a day before fading and peak wave heights should remain below 8 ft. Expect pulsing winds, in the 20-25 kt range, and building seas to 8 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo during late night and early morning hours over the next couple of days. A short-lived long-period northern swell of about 8 ft will just reach our north waters tonight and tomorrow. Marine guidance suggests seas to 8 ft spreading S and covering the waters N of 28N between 123W and 130W by early Wednesday afternoon. No significant long-period swells are affecting the area from the southern hemisphere now through the next several days. A weak area of low pressure could form about 1500 miles east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands late this week or weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves slowly west- northwestward. The Tropical Weather Outlook from 11 am PDT indicates a low chance of formation during the next 5 days. $$ GR