000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091540 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Javier is centered about 90 nm NW of Cabo San Lucas Mexico near 23.8N 111.2W at 1500 UTC, moving NW or 310 degrees at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds have decressed to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak wave heights are around 10-12 ft, but no observations near Javier have been available recently. Javier is anticipated to become a remnant low by Wednesday. There is only isolated moderate convection within 120 nm in the northern semicircle of Javier. Scattered showers are occurring within 180 nm of Javier's center, with some being heavy showers especially in areas of upslope flow in Baja California. Javier is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and northwest Mexico through Thursday morning, with maximum amounts of up to 8 inches possible. The expected rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Please refer to the latest NHC forecast and public advisories under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC and MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave is located near 95W extending from about 08N to 19N. The wave only is apparent at 700 mb from the SUNY- Albany tropical wave diagnositics. No significant convection is associated with the wave except along the monsoon trough south of 10N. A weak tropical wave is located near 87W extending from about 08N to 17N across Centra America. While this wave had been trackable via total precipitable water and the SUNY-Albany tropical wave diagnositcs previously, the wave is become indistinct as it interacts with the topography of Central America and the monsoon trough. No significant convection is associated with the wave except along the monsoon trough south of 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N88W to 09N104W, then resumes from 14N116W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the trough east of 89W and between 95W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm of the trough between 125W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... Aside from Tropical Depression Javier, most of the area is relatively quiescent. Easterly tradewinds are weak across the area remaining at fresh breeze or weaker conditions with corresponding wave heights remaining below 8 ft. In the northern Gulf of California, SE winds should shortly reach 20 to 25 kt north of 30N. These are due primarily to enhanced troughing over Baja California and is only indirectly related to Tropical Depression Javier. These should persist for about a day before fading and peak wave heights should remain below 8 ft. A weak Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event should commence by Wednesday morning, as the Caribbean tradewinds are intensifying. This will reach about strong breeze conditions during late night and early morning hours and fade by Thursday afternoon. Peak wave heights should be around 8 ft. A short-lived long-period northern swell of about 8 ft will just reach our 30N border on Wednesday and fade by Thursday. No significant long-period swells are affecting the area from the southern hemisphere now through the next several days. An area of low pressure could form about 1300 nm east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands late this week or weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some slow development of this system while it moves west-northwestward. The Tropical Weather Outlook from 12Z indicates a low chance -20 percent - of formation during the next 5 days. $$ Landsea