000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090922
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 UTC Tue Aug 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Javier is centered about 40 nm NW of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico near 23.3N 110.4W at 0900 UTC, moving NW or 315
degrees at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. Maximum sustained winds are now 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
There is no observed convection near the center. Javier has passed
to the S of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Javier is forecasted to continue weakening and move along the W
coast of Baja California through Wednesday night. Javier still has
the potential to produce heavy rain and flooding in Baja
California Sur and the coastal parts of the Mexican states of
Sinaloa and southern Sonora through Thu morning. Please refer to
the latest NHC forecast and public advisories under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC and MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extending from 12N95W to 18N94W is moving W at 15
kt, and enhancing convection N of 16N from 93W to 95W over the
isthmus of Tehuantepec. It is expected to remain weak as it moves
westward to near 105W-110W by Wed afternoon.

A weak tropical wave reaching from 11N85W to 18N84W is expected
to move W across Central America through Wednesday night and
enhance convective activity south of 15N east of 100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 11N86W to low pres 09N92W
1010 mb to 09N101W, then resumes from 14N116W to 09N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found N of 16N
between 78W and 85W and from 06N to 10N between 93W and 104W.
Scattered moderate convection is present within 90 nm either side
of the monsoon trough axis between 118W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

A surface trough over the northern Gulf of California and the
Baja peninsula merges with TS Javier to form a broad area of low
pressure. N swell will propagate S from near the California coast
into the forecast waters north of 28N on Wed and Wed night. S to
SE fresh to strong winds will develop over the Gulf of California
N of 30N Tue night through Wed night.

S of 15N E of 120W:

The monsoon trough is expected to shift S during the next 24 hours
as Javier is drawn NW into the trough over Baja California. The
trough will then linger in the vicinity of 09N through Fri. This
will allow winds and seas to gradually diminish during the next
two days in this region. Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo are
expected to become fresh to strong during the early morning hours
on Wed and Thu.

W of 120W: 

High pressure N of the area extends a broad ridge over the
northern waters from 32N138W to 19N122W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and low pressure associated with the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds N of 15N
across the region.

$$
cam