000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090246
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Aug 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Javier is centered about 35 nm SE of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico near 22.5N 109.7W at 2100 UTC, moving NW at 4 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the
center. Javier is forecast to pass near or over the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula tonight, and move along the
west coast of Baja California through Tuesday night. Javier is
expected to produce heavy rain and possible flooding in southern
Baja through Wed morning. Please refer to the latest NHC
forecast and public advisories under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC and MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extending south of 15N to 10N along 93W is
moving west at 15 kt, and enhancing convection within 45 nm of
11N93W. It is expected to remain weak as it moves westward to
near 105W-110W by Wed afternoon.

A weak tropical wave along 83W is expected to move westward
across Central America through Tuesday and enhance convective
activity south of 15N east of 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends across from 10N85W to 09N92W to
14N102W, then resumes from 17N112W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the
trough axis between 88W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection
within 75 nm either side of the axis between 118W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

A surface trough over the northern Gulf of California and the
Baja peninsula merges with TS Javier to form a broad area of low
pressure. Northerly swell will propagate southward from near the
California coast into forecast waters north of 28N Wed and Thu.
South to southeast fresh to strong winds will develop over the
Gulf of California N of 30N Wed and Wed night.

S of 15N E of 120W:

The monsoon trough is expected to shift southward over the next
24-36 hours as Javier is drawn NW into the trough over Baja
California. This will allow winds and and seas to gradually
diminish during the next two days in this region. Winds over the
Gulf of Papagayo could become fresh to strong Tue night and Wed
morning.

W of 120W: 

Post-Tropical Low Ivette continues to weaken and move further
west of the discussion area. High pressure north of the area
extends a broad ridge over the northern waters, and the pressure
gradient between the ridge and low pressure associated with the
convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
north of 15N across the region.

$$
Mundell