000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082115
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Aug 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Javier is centered about 35 nm SE of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico near 22.5N 109.6W at 2100 UTC, moving NW at 8 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is within 60 nm of the center, with
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection elsewhere
within 105 nm. Javier is forecast to pass near or over the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula this evening, and
move along the west coast of Baja California through Tuesday.
Some strengthening is possible tonight. Javier is expected to
produce heavy rain and possible flooding in southern Baja
through Wed morning. Please refer to the latest NHC forecast and
public advisories under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
and MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extending south of 15N to 10N along 9!W is
moving west at 15 kt, and enhancing convection within 30 nm of
11.8N 91.4W. It is expected to remain weak as it moves westward
to near 105W-110W by Wed afternoon.

A weak tropical wave along 82W is expected to move westward
across Central America through Tuesday and enhance convective
activity south of 15N east of 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends across the entire basin from 10N85W to
08N91W to 15N107W to 10N125W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm S of the trough axis
between 85W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection within 75 nm
either side of the axis between 123W and 138W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

A surface trough over the northern Gulf of California and the
Baja peninsula merges with TS Javier to form a broad area of low
pressure. Northerly swell will propagate southward from near the
California coast into forecast waters north of 28N Wed and Thu.
South to southeast fresh to strong winds will develop over the
Gulf of California N of 30N Wed and Wed night.

S of 15N E of 120W:

The monsoon trough is expected to shift southward over the next
24-36 hours as Javier is drawn NW into the trough over Baja
California. This will allow winds and and seas to gradually
diminish during the next couple of days over the waters in this
region. Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become fresh to
strong Tue night and Wed morning.

W of 120W: 

Tropical Depression Ivette continues to weaken and move further
west of the discussion area. Lingering 8-9 ft seas are found
from 18N-21N W of 138W. Elsewhere high pressure north of the
area extends a broad ridge over the northern waters, and the
pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure associated
with the convergence zone is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds north of 15N across the region.

$$
Mundell