000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081607
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 UTC Mon Aug 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Javier centered about 67 nm SE of Cabo San Lucas
Mexico near 22.0N 109.2W at 1500 UTC. Javier is moving NW or 315
degrees at 9 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of center and
from 22N to 26N between 106W and 110W. The center of Javier is
forecast to pass near or over the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula later today, and move near the west coast
of Baja California Sur tonight and Tuesday. Some strengthening
is possible while Javier passes near the extreme Baja California
peninsula. Javier is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over coastal parts of the Mexican
states of Sinaloa and southern Sonora into Baja California Sur
with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through
Wednesday morning. Please refer to the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N95W to 13N104W
resuming near 13N114W to 11N127W to 12N137W. Scattered moderate
and isolated thunderstorms are N of 05N E of 80W...from 05N
to 10N E of 99W and from 08N to 13N W of 119W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

A surface trough over the northern Gulf of California and the
Baja peninsula merges with TS Javier to form a broad area of low
pressure. Tropical storm Javier will have a significant impact
on the Baja Peninsula during the next couple of days. See the
special features section for more details. N swell will
propagate southward from W of the California coast into the
forecast waters on Wed and Thu. South to southeast fresh to
strong winds will develop over the Gulf of California N of 30N
Wed and Thu.

S of 15N E of 120W:

The monsoon trough is expected to shift southward over the next
24-36 hours as Javier is drawn NW into the trough over Baja
California. This will allow winds and and seas to gradually
diminish during the next couple of days over the waters in this
region. Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could become fresh to
strong Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

W of 120W: 

Tropical depression Ivette is W of the area. However, over the
forecast waters fresh to near-gale force E to SE winds remain
from 18N to 23N W of 137W with seas ranging from 8 to 12 ft.
Elsewhere from 18N to 25N winds are 20 kt or less with seas to 8
ft. Surface ridging dominate over the remainder forecast waters.

$$
RAMOS