000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081004
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 UTC Mon Aug 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Javier centered about 120 nm SE of Cabo San Lucas
Mexico near 21.5N 108.3W at 0900 UTC. Javier is moving NW or 315
degrees at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 60 nm
north of the center and from 22N to 25N between 106W and 108W.
Javier is expected to continue moving NW with a decrease in
forward speed through Tuesday. Javier will pass near or over the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late this afternoon
or evening, and move near the west coast of Baja California Sur
tonight and Tuesday. Strengthening is expected during the next day
or so, and Javier could become a hurricane as it passes near the
southern portion of Baja California. Javier is expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over coastal
parts of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and southern Sonora into
Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches through Wednesday morning.Please refer to the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Depression Ivette is centered just W of the discussion
area near 17.1N 140.6W at 0900 UTC. It is moving W or 270 degrees
at 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Ivette
maintains a fully exposed low level center due to moderate
westerly wind shear displacing deep convection about 60 nm NE of
the center. Further weakening is anticipated as this system
continues moving away from the discussion area. Ivette should
become a remnant low in about 24 hours. Refer to the latest CPHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers HFOTCPCP4/WTPA34 PHFO
for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 10N96W,
then resumes from 16N109W to 12N113W to 13N120W to 10N137W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 05N
to 12N between 91W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough axis W of 120W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

A surface trough over the northern Gulf of California and the
Baja peninsula has linked up with TS Javier to form a broad
trough. Tropical storm Javier will have a significant impact on
the Baja Peninsula during the next couple of days. See the special
features section for more details. N swell will propagate
southward from W of the California coast into the forecast waters
on Wed and Thu. Winds over the Gulf of California N of 29N will
become fresh to strong on Wed and Thu.

S of 15N E of 120W:

The discontinuous monsoon trough is expected to re-form and shift
southward over the next 24-36 hours as Javier is drawn NW into the
trough over Baja California. This will allow winds and and seas to
gradually diminish during the next couple of days over the waters
south of 15N and east of 120W. Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo
could become fresh to strong Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

W of 120W: 

The subtropical ridge extends SE from 32N140W to near 18N129W. A
moderate pressure gradient exists north of TD Ivette, and
scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trades north of 20N
west of 128W.

$$
cam