000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080247
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Aug 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Javier centered near 20.6N 107.7W at 0300 UTC. It
is moving NW or 310 degrees at 11 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is within 90 nm north and 150 nm south of the center.
Javier is expected to move NW and continue to intensify through
Tuesday morning, then weaken as it crosses the southern Baja
peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday. Please refer to the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Ivette centered near 17.2N 139.8W at 0300
UTC. It is moving W or 275 degrees at 8 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Ivette has a fully exposed low level
center due to moderate westerly wind shear displacing deep
convection about 120 nm NE of the center. Further weakening is
anticipated, and Ivette should become a remnant low within 24
hours. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N98W,
then resumes from 16N106W to 12N119W to 10N138W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection from 06N to 11N between 83W
and 94W.

...DISCUSSION...   

A moderate subtropical ridge extends SSE from a 1030 mb high
centered near 43N143W across northern waters, roughly north of
20N and west of 123W. A moderate pressure gradient exists north
of TD Ivette, and scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh
trades north of 20N west of 128W. A surface trough extending
across the northern Gulf of California and the Baja peninsula
may be linking up with TS Javier to form a broad trough from the
Mojave desert in southern California to near Manzanillo Mexico.
The discontinuous monsoon trough is expected to re-form and
shift southward over the next 24-36 hours as Javier is drawn
northwestward into the trough across Baja California. This will
allow winds and and seas to gradually diminish over waters south
of 15N and east of 120W.

$$
Mundell