000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Aug 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Javier centered near 19.5N 106.6W at 2100 UTC. It
is moving WNW or 300 degrees at 12 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is within 120 nm of the center. Javier is expected to
move NW and intensify through Tuesday morning, then weaken as it
crosses the southern Baja peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Please refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Ivette centered near 17.3N 139.0W at 2100 UTC. It
is moving WNW or 290 degrees 9 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Ivette has a fully exposed low level center
due to moderate westerly wind shear displacing deep convection
about 120 nm NE of the center. Further weakening is anticipated,
and Ivette should become a remnant low within 1-2 days. Refer to
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 07N178W to 10N92W,
then resumes from 14N104W to 11N120W to 09N133W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection from 06N to 09N between 82W
and 89W. Scattered moderate convection within 60 nm either side
of the trough axis between 103W-112W.

...DISCUSSION...   

A moderate subtropical ridge extends SSE from a 1032 mb high
centered near 43N144W across northern waters, roughly north of
20N and west of 123W. A moderate pressure gradient exists north
of TS Ivette and scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh
trade winds north of 20N west of 128W. A surface trough extends
across the northern Gulf of California and the Baja peninsula
and seems to be linking up with TS Javier to form a broad trough
from the Mojave desert in southern California to near Manzanillo
Mexico. The discontinuous monsoon trough is expected to re-form
and shift southward over the next 24-36 hours as Javier is drawn
northwestward into the trough across Baja California. This will
allow winds and and seas to gradually diminish over waters south
of 15N and east of 120W.

$$
Mundell