000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Ivette at 07/1500 UTC is near 17.2N 138.4W. Ivette is moving WNW or 290 degrees 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Ivette has a fully exposed low level center. Wind shear from the SW is displacing the deep convective precipitation to the NE. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong from 17N to 19N between 137W and 139W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 20N between 135W and 137W. Further weakening is anticipated, and Ivette should become a remnant low within 2 days. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E at 07/1500 UTC is near 18.7N 105.0W. The depression is moving WNW or 300 degrees 9 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong from 21N to 25N between 106W and 109W. Numerous strong within 120 NM to the northwest of the center, within 30 NM of the center in the eastern quadrant, and within 60 NM of the center elsewhere. Numerous strong also from 18N to 20N between 106W and 108W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 60 NM on either side of 15N102W 13N106W 12N110W 11N117W 11N120W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 11N114W to 13N120W to 09N131W. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 113W and 120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 NM on either side of the line from 06N78W to 08N85W to 11N89W to 10N93W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: A weak surface trough will persist along the Baja California peninsula through Tuesday. Light to moderate NW winds and SW long period swell will prevail along the Baja California coast this weekend. Light to moderate south winds are expected across the northern Gulf of California with variable winds anticipated over the southern Gulf through Monday. Conditions will deteriorate comparatively, Monday through Wednesday, across southern Baja and the Gulf of California south of 28N, as Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves NW, then NNE along the southern Baja California peninsula. S of 15N E of 120W: East of 100W, moderate WSW monsoonal winds are expected through Wednesday. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to produce 4-7 ft seas across the region during the next few days. Reinforcing pulses of long period SW swell will reach this area on Monday night and Tuesday. W of 120W: The difference in pressure between a surface ridge, that passes through 30N137W, to 23N131W and 15N127W, and T.S. Ivette, is producing an area of moderate to fresh NE winds N of 18N and W of 125W based on the most recent satellite-derived wind data. Seas of 6-7 ft are associated with these winds. Mixed swell generated by Ivette will continue to propagate across the west- central waters through Monday night. $$ mt