000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070948
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 UTC Sun Aug 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Ivette is centered near 16.9N 137.3W AT 0900 UTC,
moving WNW or 290 degrees at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts
to 50 kt. Ivette has a fully exposed low level center and wind
shear from the SW is displacing the deep convection to the NE.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found in the
NW semicircle within 60 nm of the center. Further weakening is
anticipated, and Ivette should become a remnant low within 2 days.
Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E has formed from the remnants of Earl
along the southern coast of Mexico near Manzanillo and is centered
near 18.0N 104.3W AT 0900 UTC, moving WNW or 290 degrees at 9 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is present from 17N to 23N between
104W and 110W. Tropical depression 11-E will produce heavy
rainfall over coastal Mexico today. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 13N111W to 12N122W to
09N131W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between
104W and 120W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

A weak surface trough will persist along the Baja California
peninsula through Tuesday. Light to moderate NW winds and SW
long period swell will prevail along the Baja California coast
this weekend. Light to moderate south winds are expected across
the northern Gulf of California with variable winds anticipated
over the southern Gulf through Monday. Conditions will worsen Monday
through Wednesday across southern Baja and the Gulf of California
south of 28N as Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves NW, then NNE
along the southern Baja California peninsula.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

East of 100W, moderate WSW monsoonal winds are expected through
Wednesday. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to
produce 4-7 ft seas across the region the next few days.
Reinforcing pulses of long period SW swell will reach this area on
Monday night and Thursday.

W of 120W:

The difference in pressure between a surface ridge extending
southeastward from 32N135W to beyond 19N124W and TS Ivette is
producing an area of moderate to fresh NE winds N of 18N and W of
125W based on the most recent satellite-derived wind data. Seas
of 6-7 ft are associated with these winds. Mixed swell generated
by Ivette will continue to propagate across the west-central
waters through Monday night.

$$
cam