000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070235
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Aug 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Ivette centered near 16.7N 136.4W AT 0300 UTC,
moving WNW or 290 degrees at 10 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Ivette has a fully exposed low level center
and westerly wind shear is displacing the deep convection 90 to
150 nm ENE of the center. Further weakening is anticipated, and
Ivette should become a remnant low within 2 days. Refer to the
latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.

Broad convective bands in an area of intense convection from 16N-
20N between 102W and 107W is associated with a developing area
of low pressure centered near 17N103W with an estimated pressure
of 1002 mb. A ship near the area reported 30 kt southerly winds
and 9 ft seas with a MSLP of 1005 mb near 17N102W at 00Z. The
mid-level circulation of Earl has moved across southern Mexico
and has induced a strong low at the surface along the coast of
Mexico near Manzanillo. This low has a high probability of
developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.
Conditions are conducive for this system to become a tropical
depression as it moves NW toward Baja California. The low will
produce heavy rainfall over coastal Mexico tonight. These rains
could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Please refer to the latest bulletins and advisories from your
local weather agencies.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N91W,
then resumes from 13N104W to 10N132W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 11N-14N between 113W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

A weak surface trough will persist along the Baja California
peninsula through Tuesday. Light to moderate NW winds and SW
long period swell will prevail along the Baja California coast
this weekend. Light to moderate south winds are expected across
the northern Gulf of California with variable winds anticipated
over the southern Gulf through Monday. Conditions will worsen
Monday night through Wednesday across southern Baja and the Gulf
of California south of 28N as a tropical cyclone is expected to
form and move NW then NNE toward the southern Baja California
peninsula.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

East of 100W, moderate WSW monsoonal winds are expected through
this weekend. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will continue
to produce 4-7 ft seas across the region the next few days.
Reinforcing pulses of long period SW swell will reach this area
the next few days.

W of 120W:

The pressure gradient that exists between a surface ridge along
18N123W to beyond 30N136W and TS Ivette is producing an area of
moderate to fresh NE winds roughly from 18N to 25N west of 130W
based on the most recent scatterometer data. Seas of 6-7 ft are
associated with these winds. Mixed swell generated by Ivette
will continue to propagate across the west-central waters
through Monday.

$$
Mundell