000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062141
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Ivette centered near 16.3N 135.5W AT 2100 UTC,
moving WNW or 285 degrees at 10 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Ivette has a fully exposed low level center
and westerly wind shear is displacing the deep convection within
150 nm east of the center. Weakening is anticipated, and Ivette
should become a remnant low within 2-3 days. Refer to the latest
NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25
KNHC for more details.

A large area of intense convection from 14N-19N between 100W and
106W is associated with a surface trough from 20N104W to 17N102W
and the mid-level circulation of Earl moving across southern
Mexico. Although the surface circulation of Earl has dissipated,
the mid level disturbance is expected to spin up an area of low
pressure at the surface once it moves over the warm waters of
the eastern Pacific near Manzanillo. This expected tropical low
has a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone
within the next 24-48 hours. Conditions are conducive for this
system to become a tropical depression after Sunday afternoon as
it moves NW toward Baja California. The disturbance is expected
to produce an heavy rainfall over parts of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tlaxcala and Veracruz through
tonight. These rains could result in life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Please refer to the latest bulletins and
advisories from your local weather agencies.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A discontinuous monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N83W to
09N91W to 13N130W, then resumes from 14N100W to 09N126W to
11N131W. Scattered moderate convection within 30 nm either side
of the trough axis between 113W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

A weak surface trough will persist along the Baja California
peninsula through Tuesday. Light to moderate NW winds and SW
long period swell will prevail along the Baja California coast
this weekend. Light to moderate south winds are expected across
the northern Gulf of California with variable winds anticipated
over the southern Gulf through Monday. Conditions will worsen
Monday night through Wednesday across southern Baja and the Gulf
of California south of 28N as a tropical cyclone is expected to
form and move NW then NNE toward the southern Baja California
peninsula.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

East of 100W, moderate WSW monsoonal winds are expected through
this weekend. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will continue
to produce 4-7 ft seas across the region the next few days.
Reinforcing pulses of long period SW swell will reach this area
the next few days.

W of 120W:

The pressure gradient that exists between a surface ridge along
18N123W to beyond 30N136W and TS Ivette is producing an area of
moderate to fresh NE winds roughly from 18N to 25N west of 130W
based on the most recent scatterometer data. Seas of 6-7 ft are
associated with these winds. Mixed swell generated by Ivette
will continue to propagate across the west-central waters
through Monday.

$$
Mundell