000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1146 UTC Sat Aug 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Ivette at 06/1500 UTC is near centered near 16.1N 134.5W, moving WNW or 285 degrees at 9 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. West- southwest wind shear is taking its toll on Ivette at the present time. Gradual weakening is anticipated. It is likely that Ivette may become a remnant low pressure center in about 3 days. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong within 180 nm to the northeast of the center. Please read the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong from 14N to 19N between the coast of Mexico and 105W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 12N northward between 93W and 101W...to the west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This area of disturbed weather is expected to move WNW and merge with the remnants of Atlantic basin Earl, and form an area of low pressure near the SW coast of Mexico during the next day or so. The conditions remain conducive for this system to become a tropical depression early next week while it moves NW toward the Baja California peninsula. The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. The remnants of Earl are expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over parts of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tlaxcala and Veracruz through tonight. This results in storm total rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts 18 inches. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please refer to the latest bulletins and advisories from your local weather agencies. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough is along 13N111W 08N124W 13N130W. The ITCZ is along 13N136W beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm of the monsoon trough from 121W eastward, and within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 125W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: A weak surface trough will persist along the Baja California peninsula through Tuesday. Light to moderate NW winds and SW long period swell will prevail along the Baja California coast during the upcoming weekend. Light to moderate south winds are expected across the northern Gulf of California with variable winds anticipated over the southern Gulf. It is possible that a tropical depression may form and move toward the southern Baja California peninsula early next week. S of 15N E of 120W: East of 100W, moderate WSW monsoonal winds are expected through this weekend. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to produce 4-7 ft seas across the region the next few days. Reinforcing pulses of long period SW swell will reach this area today. W of 120W: An upper level trough is just to the west of the area, along 143W/144W from 13N to 23N. An upper level trough passes through 32N118W to 27N121W. A surface ridge is along 18N123W 25N127W beyond 30N136W. The pressure gradient that exists between the ridge and T.S. Ivette is producing an area of moderate to fresh NE winds roughly from 18N to 25N west of 130W based on the most recent satellite- derived winds. Seas of 6-7 ft are associated with these winds. Swell that is being generated by T.S. Ivette will continue to propagate across the west-central waters through Sunday. $$ MT