000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060953
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 UTC Sat Aug 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Ivette is centered near 15.8N 133.6W, moving W or
280 degrees at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000
mb. Maximum sustained winds remain 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Ivette continues to experience vertical wind shear. The low level
center remains partially exposed just to the W of the deep
convection this morning. As a result...numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is seen in the NE semicircle within 90 NM of the
center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
elsewhere from 14N to 18N between 129W AND 134W. The vertical
shear is not expected to decrease through Sunday, and little
change in the intensity of Ivette is expected during this time
frame. Ivette is forecasted to begin weakening on Sunday night or
Monday. A turn toward the WNW is expected later today, with this
motion continuing through Sunday night. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC
for more details.

An area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms is located
just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This disturbance is expected
to move WNW and merge with the remnants of Atlantic Tropical
Storm Earl and form an area of low pres near the SW coast of
Mexico this weekend. Conditions remain conducive for this system
to become a tropical depression early next week while it moves NW
toward the Baja California peninsula. Currently...satellite
imagery shows numerous moderate and scattered strong convection N of
14N between 97W and 104W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere N of a line from 07N82W to 05N87W to
14N105W.

Earl continues to be a heavy rainfall threat for southern Mexico.
It is expected to produce additional heavy rainfall today over
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Puebla, Queretaro, Hidalgo, San Luis
Potosi and Chiapas. These rains could result in life- threatening
flash floods and mudslides. Please refer to the latest bulletins
and advisories from your local weather agencies.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 13N110W to 10N121W to 10N127W.
The ITCZ stretches from 12N136W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 111W AND
127W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

Weak surface troughing will persist along the Baja California
peninsula through Tuesday. Light to moderate NW winds and SW long
period swell will prevail along the Baja California coast during
the upcoming weekend. Light to moderate south winds are expected
across the northern Gulf of California with variable winds
anticipated over the southern Gulf. As previously mentioned, a
tropical depression could move toward the southern Baja
California peninsula early next week.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

East of 100W, moderate WSW monsoonal winds are expected through
this weekend. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will continue
to produce 4-7 ft seas across the region the next few days.
Reinforcing pulses of long period SW swell will reach this area
today.

W of 120W:

A fairly strong subtropical ridge prevails over the NW waters.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Ivette is
producing an area of moderate to fresh NE winds roughly from 20N
to 25N west of 130W based on the most recent satellite-derived
winds. Seas of 6-7 ft are noted is association with these winds.
Swell generated by T.S. Ivette will continue to propagate across
the west-central waters through Sunday.

$$
cam