000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060252
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2329 UTC Fri Aug 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Ivette is centered near 15.4N 132.6W, moving W or
275 degrees at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Ivette
is experiencing moderate vertical shear, and the low level center
was partially exposed west of deep convection this evening. As a
result...numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen
within 90 NM NE semicircle of center. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 17N between 129W
AND 133W. The vertical shear is probably not going to decrease,
but Ivette is forecast to reach warmer waters in about 24 hours,
which could allow just a little more strengthening. See latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25
KNHC for more details.

An area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms is located
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  This disturbance is expected to move
west-northwestward and merge with the remnants of Atlantic Tropical
Storm Earl, forming an area of low pressure near the southwestern
coast of Mexico over the weekend. Conditions are conducive for
this system to become a tropical depression early next week while
it moves northwestward toward the Baja California peninsula.
Currently...satellite imagery shows clusters of moderate to strong
convection N of 15N between 97W and 100W.

Earl continues to be a heavy rainfall threat. It is expected to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over
portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco
and Veracruz through Saturday morning. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please refer to the
latest bulletins and advisories from your local weather agencies.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 11N100W to 10N115W to 12N123W.
The ITCZ stretches from 12N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 112W AND
115W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

Weak surface troughing will persist along the Baja California
peninsula through the weekend. Light to moderate NW winds and SW
long period swell will prevail along the Baja California coast
during the upcoming weekend. Light to moderate southerly flow is
expected across the northern Gulf of California with variable
winds over the southern Gulf. As previously mentioned, a tropical
depression could move toward the Baja California peninsula early
next week.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

East of 100W, moderate WSW monsoonal winds are expected through
the upcoming weekend. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will
continue to produce 4-7 ft seas across the region the next few
days. Additional pulses of long period SW swell will reach this
area on Saturday.

W of 120W:

A fairly strong subtropical ridge prevails over the NW waters.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Ivette is
producing an area of moderate to fresh NE winds roughly from 15N
to 25N west of 132W based on the most recent scatterometer passes.
Seas of 6-7 ft are noted is association with these winds. Seas
generated by T.S. Ivette will continue to propagate across the
west-central waters over the weekend.

$$
GR