000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2027 UTC Fri Aug 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivette strengthens a little. At 05/2100 UTC...it is centered near 15.5N 131.8W, moving W or 280 degrees at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Ivette is experiencing moderate vertical shear, and microwave data indicates the low level center is partially exposed west of deep convection. As a result...numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen within 120 NM E semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 NM E and 90 NM W semicircles of center. Ivette is expected to intensify slightly during the next 24 hours as it moves WNW, then weaken as it approaches cooler waters and increased vertical shear near 140W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. An area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms is located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward and merge with the remnants of Atlantic Tropical Storm Earl, forming an area of low pressure near the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Conditions are conducive for this system to become a tropical depression early next week while it moves northwestward toward the Baja California peninsula. Earl restrengthens over the southern Bay of Campeche...and continues to be a heavy rainfall threat. Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Reports from the Meteorological Service of Mexico indicate that at least 7.63 inches (194 mm) of rainfall has occurred at Yamonho Chiapas and 5.64 inches (143 mm) has occurred at Boca del Cerro thus far. Please refer to the latest bulletins and advisories from your local weather agencies. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N100W to 10N115W to 11N124W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 97W AND 102W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N E of 120W: Weak surface troughing will persist along the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. Light to moderate NW winds and SW long period swell will prevail along the Baja California coast during the upcoming weekend. Light to moderate southerly flow is expected across the northern Gulf of California with variable winds over the southern Gulf. As previously mentioned, a tropical depression could move toward the Baja California peninsula early next week. S of 15N E of 120W: East of 100W, moderate WSW monsoonal winds are expected through the upcoming weekend. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to produce 4-7 ft seas across the region the next few days. Additional pulses of long period SW swell will reach this area on Saturday. W of 120W: A fairly strong subtropical ridge prevails over the NW waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and currently T.S. Ivette is producing an area of moderate to fresh NE winds roughly from 15N to 25N west of 132W based on the most recent scatterometer passes. Seas of 6-7 ft are noted is association with this winds. Seas generated by T.S. Ivette will continue to spread across the west-central waters over the weekend. $$ GR