000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051535
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Aug 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Ivette is centered near 15.1N 130.8W at 1500 UTC,
moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure remains
1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Ivette is experiencing moderate vertical shear, and microwave
data indicates the low level center is partially exposed NNW of
deep convection. Numerous scattered isolated strong convection
noted in the SE semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring elsewhere within 240 nm of the center.
Ivette is expected to intensify slightly during the next 24
hours as it moves WNW, then weaken as it approaches cooler
waters and increased vertical shear near 140W. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends from 12N106W to 10N116W to 12N127W. The
ITCZ stretches from 12N133W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 45 nm either side of the
trough axis between 111W and 122W.

...DISCUSSION...   

A fairly strong subtropical ridge prevails over waters north of
17N and west of 117W. Weak troughing persists over the Gulf of
California and the Baja peninsula. Scatterometer data shows
moderate north to northwest winds west of Baja to 120W, and
gentle to moderate north to northeast winds east of 120W except
in the immediate vicinity of TS Ivette. Light to gentle winds
and 5-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the region. 

A cluster of active convection exists from 10N to 16N between
93W and 101W. This area is expected to move WNW and merge with
the remnants of Tropical Storm Earl, with a low forming near the
SW coast of Mexico this weekend. Conditions appear conducive for
development, and model guidance indicates a tropical depression
may form early next week, which should move NW toward the Baja
peninsula. Heavy rainfall remain a threat over SE Mexico.
Widespread showers and T-storms associated with what remains of
TS Earl will shift west through the weekend, and could produce
heavy rainfall across portions of the area from Tehuantepec to
Jalisco Mexico by Sunday evening. Please refer to the latest
bulletins and advisories from your local weather agencies.

$$
Mundell