000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050937
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 UTC Fri Aug 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Ivette is centered about 1220 nm WSW of the
southern tip of Baja California near 14.9N 129.7W at 05/0900 UTC,
moving W or 275 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure remains 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. An exposed low-level center appears to be just NW
of the deep convection, which is consistent with upper-level wind
shear from the NW. As a result, numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted in the SE semicircle within 120 nm.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring
elsewhere in the SE semicircle within 360 nm. Ivette is expected
to turn toward the WNW and slow down slightly by Saturday. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends from 12N107W to 09N116W to 11N121W. The
ITCZ stretches from 11N133W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between
109W and 120W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N E of 120W:

Weak surface troughing will persist along the Baja California
peninsula through Tuesday. Light to moderate S winds will prevail
across the north central Gulf of California the next few days.

For the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a cluster of numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection has developed just W of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec covering the area N of 11N between 95W and 100W. This
system is expected to move WNW and merge with the remnants of
Atlc Tropical Storm Earl, and an area of low pressure is forecast
to form near the SW coast of Mexico over the weekend. Conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while the low moves NW toward the
Baja California peninsula.

Earl remains a heavy rainfall threat while moving over SE Mexico.
Heavy rain associated with widespread showers and thunderstorms
associated with Earl will shift W through the weekend, and could
produce heavy rainfall across portions of the area from
Tehuantepec to Jalisco Mexico by Sunday evening. Please refer to
the latest bulletins and advisories from your local weather
agencies.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

East of 100W, light to moderate SW to W monsoonal winds are
expected through Sunday as Earl weakens and moves across SE
Mexico and the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche.

Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell will produce 4-7 ft seas
across the region the next few days.

W of 120W:

The remnants of Howard have moved W of the area to near 22N143W.
The E side of Howard is still producing winds in the 20-30 kt
range over the forecast waters from 22N to 27N W of 137W with seas
of 8-13 ft. These marine conditions are expected to move west of
area by Friday morning.

Ridging extending into the region from NW of the area is
maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds. Fresh to
strong NE winds offshore of California will generate fresh N swell
that will move into the northern waters. Seas to 8 ft will
propagate southward but remain N of 30N through Monday.

$$
cam